2018-03-07 8-K Financial Update - 2017-12-31 $15.2M cash approximately - 1Q18 $4.6M cash raised via ATM - 1Q18 $1.5M Lummy Investment closing within March, previously set price @ $4/sh and closing on 3/7 - 1Q18 $21.3M less 1Q18 cash burn around $4.5M = $16.8M cash? - Operations funded through the end of 2018 - Avoided BK risk and fears
Three Catalysts Early 2018, of which two expected within March
- March: Lummy investment, previously set @ $4/sh - March: AGS-004 Pilot Trial 12 patients primarily completion. Positive data of 6 patients published. - Early 2018: AGS-003 ADAPT 290 events full readout
Current Company Valuation, Assumption - OS 8M @ $1.375 = $11M mcap - @ $4 = $32M mcap - Cash $16M - Total Debt ~ $27M - Total Debt - Cash ~ $11M - Enterprise Value (EV) $22M @ $1.375/sh - $43M @ $4/sh
This is a quite cheap price for an upcoming HIV treatment (AGS-004), which are currently in high demand by BP (see CYDY etc). Further AGS-003 also seemingly has cutting a corner from total loss to FDA awaiting followup results of the 290 events.
We believe proper valuation at this stage is more towards the $43M EV @ $4/sh than current evaluation, which got extremely depressed by the early poor AGS-003 results, BK fears and the RS. And even that is quite a low valuation.
If company won't be bought out, surely they will need new funding towards end of 2018. However, with better results on AGS-004 and AGS-003 this should be above $4 per share.