Argos Therapeutics Inc fka ARGSQ

[finesand]

Status Update

2018-03-07 8-K Financial Update
- 2017-12-31 $15.2M cash approximately
- 1Q18 $4.6M cash raised via ATM
- 1Q18 $1.5M Lummy Investment closing within March, previously set price @ $4/sh and closing on 3/7
- 1Q18 $21.3M less 1Q18 cash burn around $4.5M = $16.8M cash?
- Operations funded through the end of 2018
- Avoided BK risk and fears

Three Catalysts Early 2018, of which two expected within March

- March: Lummy investment, previously set @ $4/sh
- March: AGS-004 Pilot Trial 12 patients primarily completion. Positive data of 6 patients published.
- Early 2018: AGS-003 ADAPT 290 events full readout

Current Company Valuation, Assumption
- OS 8M @ $1.375 = $11M mcap - @ $4 = $32M mcap
- Cash $16M
- Total Debt ~ $27M
- Total Debt - Cash ~ $11M
- Enterprise Value (EV) $22M @ $1.375/sh - $43M @ $4/sh

This is a quite cheap price for an upcoming HIV treatment (AGS-004), which are currently in high demand by BP (see CYDY etc).
Further AGS-003 also seemingly has cutting a corner from total loss to FDA awaiting followup results of the 290 events.

We believe proper valuation at this stage is more towards the $43M EV @ $4/sh than current evaluation, which got extremely depressed by the early poor AGS-003 results, BK fears and the RS. And even that is quite a low valuation.

If company won't be bought out, surely they will need new funding towards end of 2018. However, with better results on AGS-004 and AGS-003 this should be above $4 per share.