Replies to post #120898 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Biobillionair]

Hi Sam- I would assume the Market Share would be higher since Vascepa is likely to improve the costs savings of entire healthcare systems. Likely at least 60 million per year on "V" with an improved compliance of 1 bottle per year. I'd also suspect the ANCHOR indication is closely following.

$4 seems low---

I do not expect any price increase from this news until after R-I is on-label in US fro the reductions in CVD.

AMRN stock does not have a "normal" reaction to news since October 16th 2013 Ad Com.

JMO
BB

[alternatepatel]

Sam81

10% Market Share = ~20,000,000 person on V

10% is too high. Most patients don't get diagnosed. Most of the diagnosed ones will be prescribed generic TG lowering meds (unless R-IT is successful).

If 10% could have been realistic, what would it be worth in US?

[couldbebetter]

No doubt the potential market for Vascepa in China is massive and its
health care system will be overwhelmed by people with Type-2 Diabetes.
Besides a western style diet people in China are subjected to air-pollution
and many are smokers. (The COPD indication could also be huge.)

Just as the AAPL I-Phone is a big seller in China so should Vascepa if it
is marketed properly. The price will be substantially less than in the US
but the market is massive. Because of issues with the quality of Chinese
food, (many fear being poisoned by bad food) Vascepa would have to marketed
as not only safe and effective, but having no contaminants as might be had
in fish or fish oil.

Being that any approval may be years away, it is off the investor radar.
However, to a potential aquirer, especially one with experience in the
Asian medical markets, this may be a real incentive to buy AMRN.

[ziploc_1]

Sam:......This announcement raises some other questions as well
-Will china FDA allow off label Rx's?
-Who pays for meds in China....the patient or the state?....and ,if it is the state, can they be relied upon to pay royalties?
-If the patient pays, how many will have the money to pay enough to even cover Amarin's cost of product?
-Eddingpharm has "a sales force of over 1,000 professional personnel."
.....can some of these reps be "farmed" out to AMARIN
-Is Eddingfarm being even more conservative than Amarin management about taking two years to marking Vascepa?......Recently a Chinese FDA executive, accused of taking bribes, was executed.