Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

Gabor & all

Your insight is highly appreciated

Doing some “shenanigan” calculation after the announcement of Clinical Development in Mainland China, please do correct my thinking below;

- Hypertriglyceridemia is estimated to affect around 17.7% of the adult Chinese population, about 185 million people.
- 10% Market Share = ~20,000,000 person on V
- Each person buying ONLY 1 bottle = 20,000,000 per year
- Assuming lower retail price than the one in the US = $200
- Sales in 1Y should be around $4 Billion
- Assuming a low margin of just 60% = $2.4 Billion
- Amarin Royalty of just 10% = $240,000,000 per year
- Assuming randomly a 6 Years life cycle = $1.44 Billion
- Fully diluted shares ~ 348 million
- This conservative analysis should be reflected in ~ $4 increase in the price of AMRN

Do any of the above make sense?
Please feel free to correct my reasoning
Thanks