Replies to post #151999 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[rogers5729]

Thanks, anders. I'm not about to drop $5,500 just to read the report, so I can't speak to its validity. But there's a big question mark in my mind as to what that "market" number encompasses. Does that include surgery, radiation, and Optune or other treatments? Where does the threshold for inclusion/exclusion for GBM-specific treatment begin or end? That level of murkiness makes it a lot more difficult to use it as a basis for estimating potential revenue and by extension (for your purposes) market cap.

I'd sooner advocate using a "bottom-up" approach -- how many people could be using this product and at what cost? To me, that sounds like a much more transparent way of estimating revenue than a "market" number whose calculation methods and composition are opaque. At this juncture, I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree, but best of luck to you.

[ATLnsider]

These market value estimates are put together by outfits who are trying to sell their reports. The potential size of the glioblastoma market depends on the underlying estimates used to derive the market potential.

Here is another outfit that values the potential market size at $3.3 billion by 2024:

https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/glioblastoma-treatment-market-will-expand-to-3-3-billion-by-2024-b-globaldata-b-report-says-/

DCVax is a platform technology that could potentially be used for almost every operable and inoperable solid tumor. The potential market size is a lot higher than $1.15 billion or even $3.30 billion
IMO.

[anders2211]

Lets say its 2 or even 3 billion market. The point what I was trying to make is that GBM is a niche market in the cancer industry. Serving a bigger market NWBO should move and prove up its ability to cater a larger market for getting to a bigger MC...

Good luck to you too!

[Mike238191]

Insurers willingness to pay is something to consider (although with a big enough survival benefit, they will pretty much have to).

Friend of mine has a child with mild Hemophilia A, which BMRN basically cured with gene therapy. The rub is that insurers probably won’t pay to cure him (once the drug is approved) because his mild form doesn’t require prophylactic factor replacement. He is essentially cheaper to treat rather than cure. So someone with severe Hemophilia A gets cured, and someone with mild Hemophilia isn’t ever allowed to play sports. Go figure.

Gene therapies (cures rather than treatments) will completely change the healthcare landscape over the next 10 years. Our payer system is completely incompatible with the concept of cures.

[survivor1x]

http://events.braintumor.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/BrainTumorsBytheNumbers_12.04.15.pdf

I don't think they will be limited to GBM. All primary brain tumors will be initially in play. 2016= 24,700 new malignant brain diagnosis(US Only). Cut the number in half and multiply by $125k. 1.549B peak annual US sales.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html


Biotech (Drugs) see above link average 5.8 price/sales ratio. or 9bln mkt cap or $10 a share from US Only primary brain tumors. I know not all brain tumors are GBM but... this will likely be used on multiple types of brain tumors initially because of it's MOA - its targets and its safety profile.

The real beauty of DCVAX is the personalized nature of it's targets. Unlike a mAb or small molecule targeted therapy or even other vaccine that has 1 or 5 or 10 selective targets in theory DCVAX should catch whatever targets are present. And in theory it shouldn't matter what part of the body the primary tumor started, so DCVAX could be used on all solid tumors - the FDA is already getting away from the "Cancer based on location" thing. This year they approved drugs based on genetic makeup.

DCVAX direct takes this several steps further. 1. Method "B" - optimal maturation of DC cells(Old enough to know better, but young enough not to care) -optimal maturation for training the D Cell - too young no good, too old no good. 2. Multiple injections in multiple locations overtime would in theory capture more targets and mutating targets. - Once they tweak this with other immune modulating agents the efficacy could go up. Think of the immune system as a symphony and DC VAX is rewriting the sheets of music. Some people naturally have more players in their symphony than others and will respond better so the volume of the music may need to be turned up with some patients but DCVAX is the right melody.

So a $10 handle based on 5.8 times US peak sales of half of all new primary brain tumors at $125k total -Assuming fully diluted .9 bln shares. Add more for ex-Us and more for direct opportunities. What is something worth? What ever you can get for it, again look what Kite was taken out for.

[Dan88]

I don't know why so many people argued with you regarding nwbo's potential market cap. I think you are confused.

You said "The global glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) market size to reach USD 1.15 billion by 2024:

Think this way, what would be the market size ten years ago, twenty years ago predicted by the same expert 11 years ago, and 21 years ago:

It might be some very insignificant numbers, and if those numbers were to be predicted 50 years ago, then they might be just a few million or even zero.

You seem to be a very sharp person but sometimes seem to be very stubborn.

The best prediction as many have pointed out is to look at similar companies, like juno, kite, blue or even Optune, or simply to pick up economy 101 to evaluate the potential treatment patient numbers worldwide, the costs of treatment per person, profit margin, etc.

Even that stupid Optune device with miserable patent penetration, had reached a MC of around 3 billion for some times. Man, you are out of date.

[I may ask admin to give my more posts a day, but I am refrain.]

[H2R]

Hi Anders,

interesting take on potential MC.

A couple of comments:
- NWBO was just shy of $1B in August. not approved, no top line data. I would content that with positive top line data, the MC would be higher.

- Check out BLUE, JUNO (and KITE). I get your point that they may be BO targets. However, what is valued in a pre-commercial stage biotech is the pipeline potential, not the actual revenue.
The DCVax is a platform 'technology'. While the specific trial is indeed for GBM, the platform is targeted at all solid tumors.
Ph III is a proof of concept (with some real potential hard cash once commercialized) for the entire platform.
The pipeline is currently not valued. It may be because the dendritic cell approach is not validated yet, that other I/O tx's have failed, whatever. My contention is that if (the big if we are all waiting on) the PhIII is positive, it will prove the approach in one very serious and difficult case and the entire platform will start to be valued.

- I also believe that if (the big if:) the Ph III is successful, BP will become *very* interested and NWBO will be a BO target (to your own point).

IHMO.

Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs