NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[survivor1x]

http://events.braintumor.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/BrainTumorsBytheNumbers_12.04.15.pdf

I don't think they will be limited to GBM. All primary brain tumors will be initially in play. 2016= 24,700 new malignant brain diagnosis(US Only). Cut the number in half and multiply by $125k. 1.549B peak annual US sales.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html


Biotech (Drugs) see above link average 5.8 price/sales ratio. or 9bln mkt cap or $10 a share from US Only primary brain tumors. I know not all brain tumors are GBM but... this will likely be used on multiple types of brain tumors initially because of it's MOA - its targets and its safety profile.

The real beauty of DCVAX is the personalized nature of it's targets. Unlike a mAb or small molecule targeted therapy or even other vaccine that has 1 or 5 or 10 selective targets in theory DCVAX should catch whatever targets are present. And in theory it shouldn't matter what part of the body the primary tumor started, so DCVAX could be used on all solid tumors - the FDA is already getting away from the "Cancer based on location" thing. This year they approved drugs based on genetic makeup.

DCVAX direct takes this several steps further. 1. Method "B" - optimal maturation of DC cells(Old enough to know better, but young enough not to care) -optimal maturation for training the D Cell - too young no good, too old no good. 2. Multiple injections in multiple locations overtime would in theory capture more targets and mutating targets. - Once they tweak this with other immune modulating agents the efficacy could go up. Think of the immune system as a symphony and DC VAX is rewriting the sheets of music. Some people naturally have more players in their symphony than others and will respond better so the volume of the music may need to be turned up with some patients but DCVAX is the right melody.

So a $10 handle based on 5.8 times US peak sales of half of all new primary brain tumors at $125k total -Assuming fully diluted .9 bln shares. Add more for ex-Us and more for direct opportunities. What is something worth? What ever you can get for it, again look what Kite was taken out for.