Replies to post #124052 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[kevindenver]

No worries, I actually mentioned the low "n" because it's a favorite topic of those who believe 2-73 is "phony".

I operate in the medical cannabis space as a researcher, educator and private investor, all of my "n" is anecdotal and testimonial, so a solid 25 of FDA "eligible" studies is enough for me.

Shifting gears, I find the parallels in my research on cannabinoids and sigma-1 modulation extremely interesting.

http://www.anavex.com/anavex-encouraged-by-scientific-data-confirming-sigma-1-receptors-beneficial-direct-interaction-with-cannabinoid-receptor/

[Investor2014]

I think that is fair analysis of the situation.

While we await the trials to start and in turn yield hopefully positive outcomes, share price might move back up in $6 - 8 range once trials are underway.

In between, a potential licensing/partnership deal would move the share price higher. Will there be any such deal in the near term, that is the question...

[MycroftHolmes]

Re: Barriers to Investment

Investors that can tolerate the ups and downs of Phase 1/2 biotechs are already pretty sparse.

And there is a lot of confusion & uncertainty surrounding this new thing called an Adaptive Trial... and an AD drug to boot?

Phase2... 32 patients and no placebo? I would take a pass also.


So there are 5 bridges to understanding that have to crossed:

1) Realize that the FDA is dramatically changing the way it is doing things
2) Identify that the Adaptive Trial design actually provides much more/better information than it appears at first blush
3) Realize that this new direction is hugely positive for small biotechs who used to be at the mercy of Big Pharma
4) Identify that AVXL is in that class of small biotechs that stands to benefit most from this shift in power
5) Look at AVXL's Adaptive Trial results and correctly interpret a positive risk/reward ratio.

All AVXL longs have crossed those bridges while others have not.

And asynchronous information like that... is what opportunity looks like.

Cheers

Mycroft