Replies to post #123417 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[XenaLives]

Single payer doesn't work that way...

If a drug saves them $10,000 a year or more on care costs there will be an amicable meeting in the middle.

Why do you think that Austrailia is supporting Anivex trials? Because if successful it will save them a boatload of money...

The first problem is that the majority of the world is either poor, and cannot afford $1000, or is part of a socialized single payer system where Anavex would have zero leverage -- the government or EU or whoever will tell Anavex we will pay you $100/person and take it or leave it.

Anavex has a comprehensive patent portfolio. IP will not be an issue. Small 3rd world countries don't have the wherewithall to do a knock off. You've raised several "red herring" issues in that post.

[jtsmgoblue]

As a long time shareholder who rarely posts, I must say that your understanding of Dr M And his motivation for advancing this company forward are lacking. Moreover, to think that Dr M would sell this company (assuming success with upcoming trials) for $5-10B is so far from reality that it's obvious you don't understand the science, potential treatments or value of what's before us.


There are many on this board well versed in the science, potential treatments and long term value of this company. Like many I've ridden this up and down and now await with patience the potential humanitarian benefit that is in front of us. I remember when The Nasdaq bell Was rang and Dr M proudly raised his fist with conviction to see this thru. I remember the daughter of one of the leaders saying that this company will change the future.

For those impacted by AD in some fashion (Dr M surely was) we anxiously await the trial results. While many of us may benefit financially it is the humanitarian benefit that will be transformational.

Your comments are so far off I had to reply. Please take the time to due some deeper research and understand better what's in front of us and the motivation and resilience of Dr M.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

misleading analysis Triceps

when you say "where Anavex would have zero leverage -- the government or EU or whoever will tell Anavex we will pay you $100/person and take it or leave it."

That is just plain wrong. Anavex has plenty of leverage...the cost of care for untreated alz patients is $12,000 a year in the USA, probably similar in the EU and Japan, and is paid by govts....so Anavex says we will charge $6,000 a year, "take it or leave it." And the govts will be joyous to save 50% and pay anavex $6,000 per year.

"The second issue is that you do not really factor in all the costs associated with scaling up to serve a population of 50M. It will be a lot more substantial than you think"

Again, you don't get it. AVXL is not going to be the manufacturer or distributor, they will get a contract with a generics manufacturer or a BP partner to do that. Yes, that will lower AVXL's profits some...but there will be zero dilution because of it.

"Finally, there's the issue regarding patents and expiration and generics and other drugs that will be developed that will erode market share"

yeah sure, more beta amyloid drugs, which are not competition. on 273, the patent goes to 2035.

I think the best comp is Aricept, which had peak sales of around $2.6B. Not sure your number is right, but most dont bother with Aricept because it doesnt work. take rate with 273 will be much higher