Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

misleading analysis Triceps

when you say "where Anavex would have zero leverage -- the government or EU or whoever will tell Anavex we will pay you $100/person and take it or leave it."

That is just plain wrong. Anavex has plenty of leverage...the cost of care for untreated alz patients is $12,000 a year in the USA, probably similar in the EU and Japan, and is paid by govts....so Anavex says we will charge $6,000 a year, "take it or leave it." And the govts will be joyous to save 50% and pay anavex $6,000 per year.

"The second issue is that you do not really factor in all the costs associated with scaling up to serve a population of 50M. It will be a lot more substantial than you think"

Again, you don't get it. AVXL is not going to be the manufacturer or distributor, they will get a contract with a generics manufacturer or a BP partner to do that. Yes, that will lower AVXL's profits some...but there will be zero dilution because of it.

"Finally, there's the issue regarding patents and expiration and generics and other drugs that will be developed that will erode market share"

yeah sure, more beta amyloid drugs, which are not competition. on 273, the patent goes to 2035.

I think the best comp is Aricept, which had peak sales of around $2.6B. Not sure your number is right, but most dont bother with Aricept because it doesnt work. take rate with 273 will be much higher