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nicknamen

08/22/03 2:15 PM

#7308 RE: Weby #7305

Weby, this my anybody's guess on announcements, hoping it is better than I think.

First, the fact our insiders jumped on the Intel announcement bubble, tells me they knew there was nothing in the pipeline nearly as big anytime soon. Only a Microsoft endorsement would be bigger (I was one of the first to warn that they were not our friend) or if IBM had said we were "in the box". (SKS should get his CFO's broker for better timing.)

What might happen is a weak HP Infineon marketing relationship PR which would be nice but is not a huge event. If a PR says we are in the HP box, which I don't expect, this could get us over $5.

The NSM customer deals are still a mystery. I've predicted Sony and NEC both of which would sound great but would bring very little volume as they are just trying to enter the US market.

A wild card is government deals but their money isn't ready until October. Some day the HP Israel deal may come back and that is more likely a major US gov deal anytime soon.

The only really huge surprise that would start a short squeeze would be a DELL in the box announcement. I give this and a real peace in the Middle East an equal chance. Did I just go political? Better save.

Nick




SPIN

08/22/03 2:23 PM

#7309 RE: Weby #7305

assumptions:

Weby wrote:

"Much of the 12 million shares was purchased as an investment and a long term investment as well."

i'm not going to play any semantic games about the meaning of "much" & i am not a hedge fund expert, but from what i *do* know about the biz of the private placement types that provide almost usurious funding to concerns w/balance sheets on fumes is **rarely** long-term buy&hold.

maybe you know more about this sitchy than me. i dunno. but i seriously doubt that the majority of those who participate in this sort of finance are in it for the long haul. They typically establish mechanisms to ensure repayment & those typically include mechanisms that are terribly disadvantageous to the avg. s/h.

i think most would agree that the PP players rec'd a much better deal than we did. that goes w/the territory though.

preferred v. common -- says it all.

i know i'm basing much of my view on anectdotal experience & know that can be unreliable @ times. nevertheless, the PP holders are in no way the Salvation Army - they want a big return, they want it nearly guaranteed AND, if for some reason the debtor does have upside opportunity, they wanna BIG piece of that too.

i'd agree that in general things are good.

MSFT no longer has a veto as they did w/TCPA.

MSFT has acknowledged that an "SSC" hardware component is required for hardened security.

MSFT has a can of, ahem, worms on their hands w/'net security.

the rest of the world has figgered out what Wave has been carping about for 15 years & if it wasn't for the massive shift in the market for trusted computing, those PP holders would be of the death spiral variety.

Wave has a rare opportunity to seize a piece of an enormous market, one that SKS has understated as having "nice scale."

all they have to do is execute & anyone that owns @ today's price will do exceedingly well long term.

short term is another matter though & some large holders IMO aren't interested in the big dream, they want the bird in the hand.

i am quite impressed w/the resilience of the support @ $2.80, but i've also seen the MMs take the price down on next-to-nothing & i've also seen massive MOC buy orders that do not result in a commensurate rise in price, in conjunction w/obvious fakeouts & aggressive sell-side tape painting @ the close.

there are strong forces that seem to want wavx to move lower & they seem to be in control of the stock right now.

boreds are almost entirely irrelevant to that campaign & certainly could not thwart it even if the inhabitants wanted to. then again, many of the longest longs want the price to continue its decline as has been posted many times over the years.

in a year it won't matter IMO.

SPIN

[edit]
PS hey Nick - think outside "the box" - a Nokia announcement of global deployment of TCG compliant cell phones would be about as big as it gets IMO. Almost as big as an INTC endorsement.

BTK

08/22/03 3:05 PM

#7313 RE: Weby #7305

weby, "core position"

is a fantasy phrase that leads to losing.

None of the big boys you reference hold "core positions".

They simply invest, for a day, a week, a month, a decade or a millisecond. But nothing gains the vaunted status of "core position".

"Core positions" are a bad idea.

And would all refrain from comparisons to all the other positions out there.