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Re: Weby post# 7305

Friday, 08/22/2003 2:23:27 PM

Friday, August 22, 2003 2:23:27 PM

Post# of 248948
assumptions:

Weby wrote:

"Much of the 12 million shares was purchased as an investment and a long term investment as well."

i'm not going to play any semantic games about the meaning of "much" & i am not a hedge fund expert, but from what i *do* know about the biz of the private placement types that provide almost usurious funding to concerns w/balance sheets on fumes is **rarely** long-term buy&hold.

maybe you know more about this sitchy than me. i dunno. but i seriously doubt that the majority of those who participate in this sort of finance are in it for the long haul. They typically establish mechanisms to ensure repayment & those typically include mechanisms that are terribly disadvantageous to the avg. s/h.

i think most would agree that the PP players rec'd a much better deal than we did. that goes w/the territory though.

preferred v. common -- says it all.

i know i'm basing much of my view on anectdotal experience & know that can be unreliable @ times. nevertheless, the PP holders are in no way the Salvation Army - they want a big return, they want it nearly guaranteed AND, if for some reason the debtor does have upside opportunity, they wanna BIG piece of that too.

i'd agree that in general things are good.

MSFT no longer has a veto as they did w/TCPA.

MSFT has acknowledged that an "SSC" hardware component is required for hardened security.

MSFT has a can of, ahem, worms on their hands w/'net security.

the rest of the world has figgered out what Wave has been carping about for 15 years & if it wasn't for the massive shift in the market for trusted computing, those PP holders would be of the death spiral variety.

Wave has a rare opportunity to seize a piece of an enormous market, one that SKS has understated as having "nice scale."

all they have to do is execute & anyone that owns @ today's price will do exceedingly well long term.

short term is another matter though & some large holders IMO aren't interested in the big dream, they want the bird in the hand.

i am quite impressed w/the resilience of the support @ $2.80, but i've also seen the MMs take the price down on next-to-nothing & i've also seen massive MOC buy orders that do not result in a commensurate rise in price, in conjunction w/obvious fakeouts & aggressive sell-side tape painting @ the close.

there are strong forces that seem to want wavx to move lower & they seem to be in control of the stock right now.

boreds are almost entirely irrelevant to that campaign & certainly could not thwart it even if the inhabitants wanted to. then again, many of the longest longs want the price to continue its decline as has been posted many times over the years.

in a year it won't matter IMO.

SPIN

[edit]
PS hey Nick - think outside "the box" - a Nokia announcement of global deployment of TCG compliant cell phones would be about as big as it gets IMO. Almost as big as an INTC endorsement.


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