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Replies to post #1325 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
09/23/17 9:57 AM
As of the close of Fri. Sep. 22, 2017: The market is in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 130192 and 129752. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 129412 and 129412. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 132900 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 132900 to 125390. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 129750 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Sep. 21, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 131530. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 136240, which was up 38 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of September 18th, which has been a move of 2.47% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Critically, my broader investigation projection recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018. To accomplish an extended bull market of this nature requires penetrating above 130790 on an annual closing basis.
So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 130790 level at this time.
Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 11th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 9/18 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 weeks. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 136240, which was created during the week of September 4th. However, we still remain below key resistance 130350 on a closing basis. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
