Replies to post #48897 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

A suggestion: a line tangential to the blue combo, with slope not allowed to regress toward zero, and slid against the price chart, provides a relatively early signal of trend turning when the tangential line is violated.
Oddlot

[DowDeva]

Techcharter, I'm becoming very interested in spectral filtering, band pass, etc, as an aid to fine tuning cycles. Is it possible to share the software link, and some literature on how you learned/ developed this system?

I was asking questions at the Hurst cycles forum and they really didn't know what to do withm me. My talents don't lie in the area of math and engineering. Not 'stupid', almost an IQ of 135, but I practically count on my fingers. Hoping a lot of persistence and some external help will pay off as I think this approach will add tremendously to my tool kit.

A few of the engineers there at the aforementioned forum were mildly patronizing me; it was very frustrating.

I now regret all those times I was impatient/patronizing of those not as talented as I in my milieu. It felt awful.

Best regards and hoping we can get a group really going here as vokatiliy picks up, and it will. Very, very soon.

[Oddlot]

Potential cyclic top 7/30/18

The last 7yr low (actually less than 7) occurred 5th week of 2016. The 3.3 yr is observable, and thus if we assume the nominal period of the longer cycle to be 2N or 6.6yrs, some interesting things occur.

The low of the 3.3yr/173wk and high of 6.6yr occur at the same time 173 wks from start. The addition of the two gives a double hump, 86.5wks on either side of the 173wk low. Similarly, the cycle length N/2 or 86.5 weeks, added to the cycle N, gives a double hump 43.25 weeks either side of the 173wk low. This point has the potential to be, or close to,
the ultimate top.

With the low at 173wks, and the high at (173-43.25)wks or 129.75 wks from start, the calendar date is 129.75+5weeks or the week of 7/30/18.

Previously posted, price target of 3100SPX plus random distribution with std dev of 75. Thus 50:50 of hitting 3150 and roughly 10% chance exceeding 3200.

Oddlot