Monday, August 28, 2017 10:06:06 PM
SPX Sinusoid Chart
The 3.3 year sinusoid is reddish-pink. See how the curve is starting to lose momentum.
The 7.2 year sinusoid is green. you can see how the 3.3 year sinusoid is getting picked up by the 7.2 year filter. This is possible due to the nature of filters.
The blue curve on the bottom is the combination of the 3.3 and 7.2 year cycles. Its tops generally lag the major market turns by ~100 trading days (5 months), and bottoms by ~200 days.
To try to get a signal more in phase with the market (top blue plot) I've plotted the daily change (black) of the combined curve. This is effectively a first derivative that is interpreted as momentum. Presently the moment has broken the line of support from data points 400 to 50, so the combined sinusoids is fast approaching a top. When the momentum was half way from its top in 2007, a market top was within 25 days. So chances are very high a market top is in, or will happen quickly only to reverse.
A momentum reading of 0 is a top/bottom.
The 3.3 year sinusoid is reddish-pink. See how the curve is starting to lose momentum.
The 7.2 year sinusoid is green. you can see how the 3.3 year sinusoid is getting picked up by the 7.2 year filter. This is possible due to the nature of filters.
The blue curve on the bottom is the combination of the 3.3 and 7.2 year cycles. Its tops generally lag the major market turns by ~100 trading days (5 months), and bottoms by ~200 days.
To try to get a signal more in phase with the market (top blue plot) I've plotted the daily change (black) of the combined curve. This is effectively a first derivative that is interpreted as momentum. Presently the moment has broken the line of support from data points 400 to 50, so the combined sinusoids is fast approaching a top. When the momentum was half way from its top in 2007, a market top was within 25 days. So chances are very high a market top is in, or will happen quickly only to reverse.
A momentum reading of 0 is a top/bottom.
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