Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

Potential cyclic top 7/30/18

The last 7yr low (actually less than 7) occurred 5th week of 2016. The 3.3 yr is observable, and thus if we assume the nominal period of the longer cycle to be 2N or 6.6yrs, some interesting things occur.

The low of the 3.3yr/173wk and high of 6.6yr occur at the same time 173 wks from start. The addition of the two gives a double hump, 86.5wks on either side of the 173wk low. Similarly, the cycle length N/2 or 86.5 weeks, added to the cycle N, gives a double hump 43.25 weeks either side of the 173wk low. This point has the potential to be, or close to,
the ultimate top.

With the low at 173wks, and the high at (173-43.25)wks or 129.75 wks from start, the calendar date is 129.75+5weeks or the week of 7/30/18.

Previously posted, price target of 3100SPX plus random distribution with std dev of 75. Thus 50:50 of hitting 3150 and roughly 10% chance exceeding 3200.

Oddlot