Replies to post #129619 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[JTORENCE]

alphapuppy that's one hell of a program you got.eom

[Rootjim]

A lot of info. You say you are long, so I assume you believe your model shows efficacy. Perhaps someone will chime in good or bad about your model.

[Al4door]

Alpha,
thank you but I don't understand anything that you wrote and I may not be alone. Is this an article that you wrote, reason I say this is with the darker larger fonts it mimics one. What is the final numbers, is it good or is it bad? All I can tell from what you wrote is what you do for a living and the title of it and that is about it. So how about translating for the dummies like me here who are longer than yourself.
Thanks, i think?

[kabunushi]

I'm still learning what everything in these K-M curve models mean, esp wrt censored patients, so pls forgive some really basic questions - e.g. are the censored completely omitted from the curves or are they recorded on the curve from the start until the date they are censored (in your model the censored asof dates would have to be randomly or uniformly distributed I guess)?

One reason I'm trying to understand exactly how the censoring influences the curves is that I notice about your model that wrt the number censored, you have a much lower % of the placebo arm as censored (23/110) vs the % censored in the treatment arm. (80/221). Why is that? In general what effect would having more or fewer patients as censored have the KM curve or on the mOS predictions?

Thanks for your patience in helping me understand this if you can.

Stratum Total observed Total failed Total censored Time steps
1 DCVAX-L 221 141 80 164
2 PLACEBO 110 87 23 79

[eagle8]

Thank you for your work alphapuppy and sharing it with us !


GLTU

[Know-Fear]

Thanks. Always nice to have a fresh set of eyes/perspective on PFS/OS potential.

[biosectinvestor]

Thanks Alpha! This is very interesting!

[john1045]

Thanks alphapupphy for your work on this....very interesting and again thank you for taking your time to put this together.

[Doc logic]

alphapuppy,

Thank you for this very detailed report. This is perhaps the 5th measurement of potential favorable outcome I have seen on this board. I say potential because this is using a given from the ICT-107 trial that we hope is very close to what the L trial will demonstrate. We must also remember that the pseudos will also be added into any positive outcome for PFS and if adjudication and or late improved outcomes from Germany can help then the number of censored PFS could be critical. Best wishes.