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Replies to post #1468 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
08/12/17 10:03 AM
NY Silver COMEX Futures CLOSING FORECAST AS OF Fri. Aug. 11, 2017: Eyeing our monthly timing models, the next target for a turning point should arrive September in NY Silver COMEX Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring our attention. The key week ahead for a turning point is 8/7. Last month produced a low at 143400 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 168700 to 143400. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1965 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 46 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Aug. 11, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high with a rally for the past 4 days with technical resistance at 175950, however this was an inside trading day so technical closing support lies at 168500 and a close beneath that will suggest a retest of support first. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 170700 and is trading up about 6.76% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution following the high established Thu. Aug. 10, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 10th at 151450, which was down 12 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of July 10th, which has been a move of 13% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 212250 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 154340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my long-term view looking forward recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018. To accomplish an extended bull market of this nature requires penetrating above 185060 on an annual closing basis.
So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 185060 level at this time.
Inspecting the immediate trend remains bullish since July made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/7 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 weeks. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 177450, which was created during the week of June 5th. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 months. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 159350 on a closing basis.
