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Replies to post #1243 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
07/29/17 10:08 AM
NY Gold Nearest Futures CLOSING ANALYSIS AS OF Fri. Jul. 28, 2017: Observing our monthly timing models, we see a turning point is developing this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring watchfulness. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/31. Last month produced a high at 129880 during June. We need to exceed that level during July to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 123650 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 119450 becomes possible. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1976 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 35 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Jul. 28, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high with a rally for the past 2 days warning this is still only a reactionary move. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 126840 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the reaction low made on Wed. Jul. 26, 2017, but the key low was made 14 days ago on Mon. Jul. 10, 2017 at 120400.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 5th at 129880, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of July 10th, which has been a move of 5.35% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Diagnostically, my long-term view looking forward recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018.
So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 130790 level at this time.
Eyeballing the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of July 17th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/24 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 2 weeks. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 129880, which was created during the week of June 5th. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
