Replies to post #122803 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

No argument their Evaluate. I guess I miss-read your original point.

When playing the modeling game there are two aspects. One is getting the data that allows you to estimate blended numbers. The other is "what would SOC do in this population".

Both can be uncertain.

[Doc logic]

Evaluate,

The whole line of reasoning flipper44 is using is similar to your 100/500 thinking. The greater any blended number is in comparison to well documented historical evidence, in this case other GBM trials, the better the odds that the unblinded outcome will be favorable. BeSt wishes.

[sentiment_stocks]

Hi Evaluate… I’m going to try and answer your questions because I think I understand what you are struggling with.

Here is my issue: since the trial success of failure is not based on a "blended mPFS" or a "blended mOS" ... then how valuable is it to come up with an estimate of these numbers? - eval

If these are the numbers that company management are unblinded to… and they seem to think that extending the trial to the greatest possible point has merit so they are probably arriving at some conclusions as to how the separate arms are performing …

then I would think many investors would consider the blended number to be a useful metric in determining whether the investment has merit as well.

So if one can determine a ball park on that blended median number based the facts that are available to us thus far…

the slide Dr. Bosch exhibited at ASCO,
there are still 100 patients alive,
10% have still not crossed over to DCVax,
the midway point of enrollment (May 2014),
66 evented by December 2013,
it appears that DCVax is working to extend the lives of most of the patients… some perhaps not so much (Sunday Dennis), and some perhaps a great deal,
and any additional facts we are in possession of that are not coming to my mind right now,

…what does that do for us?

And the answer would be we can attempt to work out from there how the treatment and control arms might be performing separately.

I arrived at some assumptions as to what the blend might be approximate by basing it on the old protocol’s assumptions as to how the two arms might perform in the linked post below. Of course there are problems with it as I based it on averages, but it helps to demonstrate where the blend might be right now.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=132229655

If someone arrives at an estimate for a blended-PFS and a blended-OS .... wouldn't you think this person might also have some idea about the breakdown between the treatment & control? I am not trying to be difficult here ... I just do not understand why a blended number would be deemed significant ... whereas in my view the treatment versus control estimates is what is significant. - eval

So your question sort of answers itself. If someone has an estimate for the blended PFS or blended OS, then yes, I think they can then work out an estimate for what the separate arms may be showing.

It’s important to note that these would all be estimates.