Replies to post #43560 on Greenshift Corporation (GERS)

[nobody12378]

You are correct in that we know little (nothing?) based on communication from KK and GERS. That said, we do know some things and I will not reiterate all of them here. One of the fundamental facts is that C&C will get paid and they have chosen a contingency fee over billable hours. Thus, it is safe to say that C&C, with the most inside information available to anyone, believe that there will be a "windfall". Yes, I should define "windfall"; a large amount of money coming to KK/GERS as a result of this litigation. (If you have been following the legal filings and Federal Circuit rulings on similar issues, and the history of the Federal Circuit siding with the USPTO in disputes with district court opinions you will have a basis for why C&C is certain of this outcome).

There are many ways the common shareholders could profit from this windfall, and many ways that they may not -- that is the gamble. I do not believe that it is a gamble that a windfall, as defined above, will occur. Also, the fact that ICM/DVG have recently accepted mediation and settlement discussions is a clarion call that they know what will happen with the Federal Circuit appeal as well.

[Dutch1]

There are different kinds of risks.

IMO:
When it comes to the chance of seeing money after a ruling being given to the common share holders, I think the chance is very little and the risk high if you gamble on that.

When it comes to the chance of there being a windfall after such a ruling from which the shareholder who are in at that moment can profit the chances are much bigger, and the risk is smaller if you gamble on that.

When it comes to the chance of a settlement, those chances have shrunk pretty much yesterday. The risk for gambling on that is high.

When it comes to the chance that one of these events will happen, the chance is very large. But if it doesn't happen the chance of losing almost all your money is very high.

I think we have a large chance that an event will occur this year on which we may profit mostly from the windfall caused by the rush after news is announced on a final outcome of the litigation. The risk on going for that isn't that big IMO, the profit is.
However, the longer it might take, the more dilution there will be, and the chance that that happens is large, which increases the risk off gaining less if you invest to early. And beside the chance of seeing your investment finally shrink to 1/100 of it's current value there is a small chance that the ruling will not be in in the favor of GERS. In that case, your investment can be pretty much worthless.

So there is a chance of losing it all, but that chance isn't that large. The longer you wait to invest, the bigger your profit might be. But waiting too long, might make you miss the boat. It will always be a gamble, because no one can tell what the increase off the PPS will be at the end of the year.

JMHO ;-)