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Re: namtae post# 43560

Thursday, 04/06/2017 9:30:37 AM

Thursday, April 06, 2017 9:30:37 AM

Post# of 52845
There are different kinds of risks.

IMO:
When it comes to the chance of seeing money after a ruling being given to the common share holders, I think the chance is very little and the risk high if you gamble on that.

When it comes to the chance of there being a windfall after such a ruling from which the shareholder who are in at that moment can profit the chances are much bigger, and the risk is smaller if you gamble on that.

When it comes to the chance of a settlement, those chances have shrunk pretty much yesterday. The risk for gambling on that is high.

When it comes to the chance that one of these events will happen, the chance is very large. But if it doesn't happen the chance of losing almost all your money is very high.

I think we have a large chance that an event will occur this year on which we may profit mostly from the windfall caused by the rush after news is announced on a final outcome of the litigation. The risk on going for that isn't that big IMO, the profit is.
However, the longer it might take, the more dilution there will be, and the chance that that happens is large, which increases the risk off gaining less if you invest to early. And beside the chance of seeing your investment finally shrink to 1/100 of it's current value there is a small chance that the ruling will not be in in the favor of GERS. In that case, your investment can be pretty much worthless.

So there is a chance of losing it all, but that chance isn't that large. The longer you wait to invest, the bigger your profit might be. But waiting too long, might make you miss the boat. It will always be a gamble, because no one can tell what the increase off the PPS will be at the end of the year.

JMHO wink