Replies to post #109514 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Doc logic]

akika,

From the risk side of the equation, NWBO is not financially prepared for failure of DCVax-L. Excessive build up of manufacturing capability by Cognate, without DCVax-L production, would mean that Linda has repeated Dendreon's mistake and would cost her and her private enterprise partners dearly bease if you don't use them you still must maintain them until you can find a buyer. There are not many volunteers from the bear side who would care to give a careful analysis to explain this and I believe AVII77 also indicated that their production capacity appeared to be outstripping current contractual needs. Cognate has some income from customers other than NWBO but none that would require a large commercial ramp up anytime soon. This begs the question for the need for the increased number of clean room units delivered and job opportunities being posted by Cognate for commercialized production. Now, with this long winded preamble in mind, failure of L would drop share price immediately to $.05 or less because of the lack of financial cushion. Much would depend on whether or not NWBO released any peer reviewed paper about Direct, prior to the hypothetical failed L announcement, which could help explain Phase 1 mixed findings and why Phase 2 should be an overwhelming success. This type of news and a reverse split would keep NWBO solvent. Anything less and it's lights out, lawsuits galore and no time to live a normal life for Linda or any of the current or former management or directors unless the pseudo trial proves that treatment is a cure for that subgroup.

Now on the benefit side there is immediate and long term value. Value for L alone as a treatment for brain cancer takes market cap into multiple billions because they are essentially manufacturing ready or will be very soon on 2 continents. The Phase 2 combos are set to have results in about 1 year from their start which coincides with the time it would take to submit a BLA and receive expedited approval after the expected OS endpoint is reached. If long term forward P/E value is ascribed to NWBO immediately upon good news then market cap valuation will begin to grow or explode exponentially if the potential good news from a peer reviewed paper about Direct is released at the same time as results from L. One last point to consider is that on the OTC it is retail against other private investors like hedge funds due to the price point. The only way retail can catch a break is if those who currently own shares don't immediately have shares up for sale, trading is halted and retail swarms in from media coverage to buy up loose undervalued shares. If Direct was to be projected as approvable in 3 years or less and could be used as a stand alone treatment, then that is where selling early after news will come back to haunt long term investors who sold just to be able to breathe again. You can set your own price on that scenario. Best wishes.