Falconer...I'm especially happy to help you if I can...
your commentaries and knowledge is very helpful here, much appreciated by me, being so fundamentally ignorant as I am.
But heres the only way I can help in seeing the targets shown on a chart for playing the trading game, (or investing) ...first I have to proclaim the disclaimers for everyone,that everything I say is my DD point of view, and is not meant as trading advice for anyone. I'm not a certified advisor,just a certified caveman.
so its important that we all do our own Due Diligence, right?
Ok, with that out of the way, if youre interested in making use of my chart analysis, I'd say you have to go read as many of my previous AVXL posts as you can stand. to get a perspective. and you'd see that I've been correctly following along the technical trading roller coaster tracks ,with enough correct vision that shows I'm doing ok with the method of chart analysis, I'm seeing the picture pretty well.
I'm wrong at times,but mostly right,and at least get close to the target zones.
The tricky part about finding targets to buy and sell, is the way the price gets tossed around like a rag doll by the big money powers that can take price to the farther extremes ,when they want to. That's why lately,at a key time like this...I've been saying watch out now for bigger 1 dollar moves,up and down, that might develop into 2 dollar wave patterns...and the chart is showing this. From the 4.88 top we now see a 1 dollar drop to today's low...that's nice caveman algorithm price action...I almost feel some comfort in seeing this kind of price action because its following right close to the technical tracks that these TA tools craft to show the picture. The tricky part comes when they show you this kind of technical price action one day, or one week, and then when theyre ready to play their next trick...they might screw up the technical chart by blasting it tomorrow from 4.30 to 6 dollars ,or collapsing it from 4.50 to 3.50 and then 4.00 to 3 dollars ...IF the powers are able to do that. So it means we're looking at a potential playing field from 3 dollars to 8 dollars. That's the Coney Island roller coaster were on.
From here, where does it go? I don't know. I can only look at the road map. I liked the idea of buying more at 3.40 a while back,before it surged to 4.10 in premarket that next day.Buying the pullback that hit 3.52 looks ok when that happened. Today's plunge to 3.88 is a little uncertain to me, so I didn't buy here but it might be ok. I just have enough shares I didn't need more at 3.90.But if it falls back to retest 3.50,I might be interested.
First time investors, if they were following AVXL for the last 6 months, should have bought at the 2.50 low and the 2.76 bottom. Folks who owned a lot of shares in 2015 should have sold a lot at the 14.84 top....right?? LOL and bought 4 times as many at the 3 dollar bottom zone. 2.43 was a gift so far. I think the real energetic bottom is the 2.76 Pivot low. and this rally from there to the latest peak at 4.88 might be the first wave in the bigger picture, that has math target topping zones around 8 dollars.
Along the way the wall street manipulation game can slam AVXL down anywhere in between. Its a very tricky game.
I cant say how much you should buy or whether you should buy and hold or trade some shares, have 1/2 account as trading shares and 1/2 as a core to hold, is what I do.
If AVXL could be trusted to always run along purely technical tracks, this chart now might suggest that the 3.89 low today was a good dip to buy, that the 5 .30 target zone is a traders target to sell some. that the zone around 3.50-3.40 should hold finally as a base. etc... and the stair steps going higher should continue to develop a bullish pattern, if the science is moving forward and troubling days are behind us that would be great....but do the big money wall street game players still have the ability to slam the price down like they do? do they still have the ability to naked short the hell out of the share price and take it from 5 dollars back down to 3 dollars? I think the Big money powers are able to do anything they want. I see nothing to change my view on that yet. So it becomes tricky to think of buying a lot here at 4 dollars, if theres a good chance they can take price back to retest 3 dollars. Some folks here would scoff at that idea that price could fall to 3 dollars again. But I believe its still possible. So with great caution,I buy in small portions at a time, at the pullback zones, as the wave patterns flow up and down, and I use the TA tools to plot the targets on the chart.
Many folks would say AVXL is a great bargain any price below 4 dollars. I wouldn't disagree with that too much. But one can save a lot of cash cost if they can get the best bargain along the way. When folks think that price will not fall below 4 dollars, and the next day we see it falling to 3.80 and a few days later it falls to 3.52,after watching it holding at 3.70...its a tricky game always. Right now,I'm watching to see what strength the overhead resistance has in the 4.40-4.60-4.80 area to cap and slam down AVXL from there in the coming days.
Clay Trader likes to say, "watch first things first" and that's about right ,at times when it could go either way, we have to watch the next road up ahead, and right now, its the resistance zone around 4.50 IF that gets capped and finishes the week below 4.50, then next week could get a little bearish to try and take it lower to test the targets around 3.50 again. and then that becomes the next 1 dollar move I'm looking for. the next 1 dollar move to the upside would be the one from today's low at 3.89 to retest the 4.88 top again..... so with that idea, comes the thought that maybe we can see a clue in the coming days, watching price rally, does it stop and get stifled at 4.50 and has trouble there, or does it rally better to retest the 4.90 zone. that's the distinction now in the strength of the rally. one being bearish in tone,to fail at 4.50 and the other being more bullish that shows hope for continued rally faster ,in the current cycle. as it plays out in the next days.
IF it falters and fails to climb thru the 4.50 area and starts to fall down, then that lights up the 3.50 target zone for me. IF it succeeds to rally thru the 4.50 resistance zone and retests the 4.90 top with some strength , then That bullish momentum follow thru lights up a bullish pullback target around the 200ma at 4.30 to see if that line holds good support and From there , we could see a bigger rally generate.
SO the 50 ma down around 3.50 is a target marker in play,and the 200ma at 4.30 is a different target marker. and it all just needs to be watched as closely as possible on many time frames, and hopefully, at certain moments, comes the right time to buy some and the right time to sell some.
You can get the better understanding of what I'm watching by reading my previous posts to catch up.
good investing and trading to you.
tom
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