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Darius Demian

12/06/16 10:27 PM

#47541 RE: ChacenAces #47540

Because it can't be. I ask similar questions periodically. Most recently SEP 9th with no legit response ;)

Re: farviewhill Post# 41504
I'm very optimistic on the prospects of CGC and of the industry as a whole. I think Canopy is well positioned both medically and recreationally. CGC is currently valued at over $450 million and if this was a mature market it would clearly be overvalued but the reality is that the market (both medically and recreationally) hasen't even started to grow yet domestically let alone internationally. The upside potential is imo almost unfathomable. CGC isn't only in the business of selling cannabis; they are also a diversified company that is partly pharmacy, consultant, branding, retail, and R&D.

In regards to my long term view...I sincerely believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity and I would be disappointed if my $ didn't grow by 10X in the next 10 years MINIMUM although theoretically I think if the rest of the world wakes up to this opportunity the pps could get there in 3 years. When recreational legalization and international opportunities are factored into P/E 100X growth from here is not out of the question. I realize that is very optimistic but it is no joke. The rest of the world is following Canada's example and CGC has first mover advantage.

In regards to short term resistance... Again I'm an optimist but I really can't see anything bringing this stock down significantly with the exception of the government backtracking on their legalization pledge (which obviously isn't going to happen).

If any glass-half-empty people want to pipe in please feel free.

TMEvans

12/06/16 11:07 PM

#47547 RE: ChacenAces #47540

Some random thoughts:

There is one assumption that one might challenge: I think one should, perhaps, be careful about assuming that because we have x% of the medical market today we will similarly get x% of the retail rec' market... I suspect that market will be a bit more fickle, and competitive. That said, it will likely be dominated, in the early stages of rec' implementation, by whoever has supply, and if we get capacity up, as is obviously the plan, we should have a leg up.

I have to admit, I don't (or didn't) entirely disagree with G-Shyster's perspective on valuation in the short term (before the MT deal, I figured fair value was somewhere between $5 and $10 a share - which is why I lightened up almost half my holdings between $7.50 and $11.50). However, since I can't time the market very well, I'm looking to the medium to longer term with the balance of my position... And I've started augmenting again through buying MT. Longer term though, $15 to $20 a share, a year or two out? Plausible enough... But I respect the view that one could find other opportunities out there to double or triple their money in other investments with a shorter time horizon.... Though I think the risk profile would look somewhat different - i.e. Riskier! (I've found a couple I've migrated some capital to)


On management: I know we are all impressed with Bruce's vision, and presence in the public eye, but I am just as impressed with Mark Zekulin - I think he's the soberminded alter ego... I am reassured that he and the board are there to temper Bruce's frenetic enthusiasm, and he has the ability to execute the plan in a meticulous and calculated way. A truly professional management team, with a propensity towards taking the high road (no pun intended). I respect these guys... And one thing I've learned over the years is that the character of management is critical, if one intends to invest for a longer term than a few months at a time.

On the task force and valuation: While I think the anticipated recommendations of the Task Force are largely priced in, there remains some discount for uncertainty... there is likely some value to be realized when there is more clarity.

The next month or two may be a roller coaster, but the story I bought into three years ago is as sound as ever, and management is executing well, on balance. Sure there have been missteps - I'm not sure the "better centres" or whatever they're called, were worth the money, for example, but who knows? 3 steps forward, 1 step back, maybe, but on the whole, progress is being made, and rapidly, and we'll be as ready for rec' as anybody, if not moreso.

Bushwacher

12/07/16 9:51 AM

#47598 RE: ChacenAces #47540

ChacenAces, you talk about your Colorado thesis. I'd appreciate a quick overview. I am late to the party, heard about MJ legalization potential in Canada only last week - although I'm from Canada, eh, but have lived in TX for 20 years.

Would also appreciate if someone could tell me how legal MJ is now distributed in the states that allow rec. Sure, I live in the USA but haven't paid too much attention to it. You can be sure it won't be legalized in TX anytime soon LOL !