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Re: ChacenAces post# 47540

Tuesday, 12/06/2016 11:07:52 PM

Tuesday, December 06, 2016 11:07:52 PM

Post# of 128585
Some random thoughts:

There is one assumption that one might challenge: I think one should, perhaps, be careful about assuming that because we have x% of the medical market today we will similarly get x% of the retail rec' market... I suspect that market will be a bit more fickle, and competitive. That said, it will likely be dominated, in the early stages of rec' implementation, by whoever has supply, and if we get capacity up, as is obviously the plan, we should have a leg up.

I have to admit, I don't (or didn't) entirely disagree with G-Shyster's perspective on valuation in the short term (before the MT deal, I figured fair value was somewhere between $5 and $10 a share - which is why I lightened up almost half my holdings between $7.50 and $11.50). However, since I can't time the market very well, I'm looking to the medium to longer term with the balance of my position... And I've started augmenting again through buying MT. Longer term though, $15 to $20 a share, a year or two out? Plausible enough... But I respect the view that one could find other opportunities out there to double or triple their money in other investments with a shorter time horizon.... Though I think the risk profile would look somewhat different - i.e. Riskier! (I've found a couple I've migrated some capital to)


On management: I know we are all impressed with Bruce's vision, and presence in the public eye, but I am just as impressed with Mark Zekulin - I think he's the soberminded alter ego... I am reassured that he and the board are there to temper Bruce's frenetic enthusiasm, and he has the ability to execute the plan in a meticulous and calculated way. A truly professional management team, with a propensity towards taking the high road (no pun intended). I respect these guys... And one thing I've learned over the years is that the character of management is critical, if one intends to invest for a longer term than a few months at a time.

On the task force and valuation: While I think the anticipated recommendations of the Task Force are largely priced in, there remains some discount for uncertainty... there is likely some value to be realized when there is more clarity.

The next month or two may be a roller coaster, but the story I bought into three years ago is as sound as ever, and management is executing well, on balance. Sure there have been missteps - I'm not sure the "better centres" or whatever they're called, were worth the money, for example, but who knows? 3 steps forward, 1 step back, maybe, but on the whole, progress is being made, and rapidly, and we'll be as ready for rec' as anybody, if not moreso.