Replies to post #95065 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Mochachip]

Dude you are putting way to much thought into this. The PR says

in or about

several times.

Amarin anticipates that the onset of approximately 80% of events will occur in the first half of 2017, with the second pre-specified interim efficacy and safety analysis by the DMC expected in or about Q3 2017.

The REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes trial continues to progress on schedule. Amarin expects the onset of the final primary cardiovascular event to occur in or about the fourth quarter of 2017 with the publication of results anticipated in 2018.

[fsulevine]

raf - IMHO, I think it is not that it is speeding up, but that events are imminent in the population for this study... so the longer the study goes on, the closer to an event occurring within each patient gets shorter. Yes, not all patients started the study at the same time. But the way I interpret that you were looking at the data implies a new start date each time. For example, if you break it down into 4 quarters, would the events occur 20% in Q1, 20% in Q2, 20% in Q3, and 20% in Q4? I seriously doubt it. I think it would be more like 10% in Q1, 20% in Q2, 30% in Q3 and 40% in Q4. Consider this to be Q5 of the study now... so a greater number of events are occurring the further you move into the study. Hence, faster and faster timing to reach X number of events than at the beginning of the study.

[amarininvestor]

A posibility is that the onset of 60% that started in March was just that, the onset of aproximately that many events. Maybe 60% was reached in June?

[ziploc_1]

R...Since I am not a statistician, I will allow myself to take leeway in making some pretty broad assumptions.
1.the composite CVE rate will be roughly 5%/year.
2.the changes in the above rate over time will be offsetting....on the one hand, there will be a diminution in the 8000 patient population, by virtue those who have had primary events,.... offset by an increase in patient events with the passage of time.... and with the aging of the patient population.

At 5% of 8000 patients, CVE per/year should be 400/yr or 33/mo....
The number of CVE between interim one and interim two is 20% of 8000 or 400. This is roughly 320 CVE. At a rate of 33 CVE/mo, this will take 10 months from the first interim collection of data(3/31/17) to the second on about 1/31/16. The DMC should take about 3 to 5 months to analyze the data(hopefully on the shorter side) and have the report ready by 6/30/16(which is close to 7/1/17 or the Q3,17 which was what management projected....or even better still 5/1/17, which was what I projected.