Replies to post #207815 on Blum Holdings Inc (BLMH)

[La Puma]

Well, this is refreshing. Thanks for a thoughtful post based on facts and data!

I agree with your post, and will add:

Assuming a 10x rev. multiple, your math, the OS increase, and the $40M rev. projection you mentioned, that puts us at a $0.53 target. Buy at $0.35, sell at $0.53 yes please...

HOWEVER!

This is a massive and emerging industry with tremendous upside potential. I think a 15x or 20x rev. multiple is more likely. Recreational MJ is a projected $300B US/EU market at full saturation. Think about that for a moment...

Lets go with 15x. That gives TRTC a price target of $0.80.

HOWEVER!

That is at $40M revenue, which is where we are TODAY on a forward 12 month look factoring in zero growth. Zero. "Repeat what you did in Q2 x 4Q= $40M....

That would assume:

They do NOTHING from a revenue accretive standpoint with the capital raised with the share increase....very low probability.

Recreational CA and NV translate into zero additional revenue.....not possible unless the measures fail.

They experience zero growth in IVXX or EG. Growth is already happening in both....

I have previously stated 2018 revenue of $120-$125M is a good threshold to aim for, considering they will have more $$ at their disposal to fund growth. That results in a price target of $2.40 at a 15x multiple.

I think they could blow right by that number.

Bottom line - a lot of upside here.

Puma

[JohnnyBlaze55]

The only problem with that is the fact that we all know EG is seasonal and that was our best quarter from the EG segment. I put us at 25-30 million per year. I would love for you to be right, as I am rooting for TRTC.

Question about the 200 million that automatically convert with the a/s increase on Monday. Do we think that they will be automatically sold on the open market?

[JohnnyBlaze55]

Kevin or puma,

Based on this previous valuation method (which it is nice to see actual numerical analysis) - you put a reasonable value of 10x revenue and used the fully diluted 750 million count. Although we are somewhere in the 450 million o/s now, but for conservative analysis we can use that number to compute a projected market cap.

Based on this pbs segment from last week, DP stated up to 75 million short term revenue (which I assume is recreational passing in Nv/ca):

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/california-will-vote-legalizing-recreational-marijuana/


So 10 (multiplier) x forward revenue (75 million) = 750 million market cap.

750,000,000 valuation / 750,000,000 o/s = $1 price per share.

Any thoughts on this analysis?

[JohnnyBlaze55]

Kevin,

Thoughts on the new financing? To me it looks incredible. 20 million at 95% of the last 5 trading days over the next 30 months with a cap on how much and how often shares can be floated in.

You're a numbers guy like me, what do you think?

[JohnnyBlaze55]

Here is your own calculation and based on it we would be at a ratio of 3.9 which we be a very undervalued security based on your analysis. Can to answer to your explanation of this.

=50,000,000 was used for annual revenue over the 40,000,000 projected.


Your formula puts trtc at a .67 valuation. I think 2018 will be MUCH higher than 50 million...over 100,00,000, but I used 50,000,000 for YR17.

Can't wait to hear your thoughts.