Replies to post #9783 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

Elmer,

A huge 12" just came on line (F11X) plus another ready and waiting to turn on the tap at 90nm (D1C) and 3 more in construction/conversion, (D1D, F12 & Ireland). What is Intel thinking? What do they anticipate that AMD doesn't?

Perhaps they expected (and still expect) Itanium to take off?

IMHO, Intel has been planning their 300mm 90nm with the expectation that Itanium would be a growing presence on the desktop by now, and they really haven't brought their factory build plans in line with realistic expectations.

They also expected the market to improve by now. Remember their pledge to build through the downturn to be better positioned for the upturn?

If my suspicion is correct then Intel will not open all their new conversions on the expected timetable. They will not man overcapacity to the point where they can not cover the costs of production, and I just don't see what they are going to produce with all that capacity.

[CombJelly]

"Why did AMD think they needed it enough to do a joint venture with UMC"

Because the JV was for the 65nm node? They have at least been consistent with saying they had to go to 300mm at the 65nm node.

[kpf]

elmer - What is Intel thinking?

What do they anticipate that AMD doesn't?

That is what i asked myself for longtime. I dont think it is an anticipation but a strategy to outproduce competition using its capital and expected 300mm cost advantages. Not sure how exactly they intend to do that. Doubling cache sizes every year is not sufficient to explain the capacities they are building up.
Dual Dothan (or Dothan-successor)- Cores across the board?
Server first in 2004, Desktop next in 2005 (P4 will be Celeron then). With integrated memory controllers, and integrated grafics as well, possibly. Something like Dual-Timna.

And yes, interesting times ahead. At the very end it will probably turn out not really as a competition of approaches, but only a competition of timing:
AMD going to X86 and SoI first and will be forced to multicores later, plans to use strained silicon as well.
Intel going to multicores and strained silicon first, plans to use SoI later. And will probably go to X86-64 as well.

K.