Replies to post #9786 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Elmer Phud]

Sgolds - Perhaps they expected (and still expect) Itanium to take off?

Does this mean that AMD doesn't build because they don't expect Opteron to take off? Just joking... AMD doesn't build because they don't have the money. Pretty simple.

IMHO, Intel has been planning their 300mm 90nm with the expectation that Itanium would be a growing presence on the desktop by now, and they really haven't brought their factory build plans in line with realistic expectations.

I assume you realize that Itanium isn't on 90nm but imply that Intel expected Itanium to use up much more 130nm capacity, requiring added Fab space for 90nm? I don't think this is the case because the cost advantages of 12" are so compelling that it's unavoidable if you can afford to build it. I also don't believe Intel expected Itanium volume to have a major impact on capacity at the time the 90nm/12" commitments were made. Intel is expecting something else and you may believe their expectations are unrealistic but only time will determine who is right.

If my suspicion is correct then Intel will not open all their new conversions on the expected timetable. They will not man overcapacity to the point where they can not cover the costs of production, and I just don't see what they are going to produce with all that capacity.

May we live in interesting times...

[RGood]

SGolds,

I think that some folks tend to downplay the importance
of 300mm. I believe it is of extreme importance!

It seems to fall out into two camps:

1) Are the folks who cry - its all about architecture
not speed.

2) Are the folks who cry - its about speed and architecture.

In an economic downturn he who has more cash can move
the muddy waters of progress more easily!

AMD made a valent effort with UMC. They were obviously
enticed by IBM or UMC told them to take ahike?? Who knows
for sure? But they lost precious ground in the performance
race.

Now- INTC has several fabs up and seasoned on 300mm. Not to
mention 90nm SRAM chips already functioning.

As far as what IBM did to AMD some time ago. Well - what
I was eluding to was - IBM dropped AMD chips from
there marketing scheme altogether because they weren't able
to make a profit. IBM is bit a ruthless like that - I am
not sure what was the situation with Cyrix.

IBM always seems to be blowing their horn about some new
process they have developed but they never seem to make
it work in high volume efficiently(manufacturable).

IBM is a big machine - AMD is a struggling company, throwing
ropes out trying to get to 300mm with a new manufacturing
process. IBM may see easy meat here??

INTC is already banking money made from its 300mm work.
Look - AMD is not stupid. It only makes sense to go to 300mm
If it didn't make sense to go to 300mm then they would have
stayed at 6 inch wafers and not went to 200mm.

If I were AMD - I wouldn't have gone to IBM. I would have
gone back to the German Government again and sought more
finances to build 300mm fab in Dresdan or somewhere local.
IBM will take their cut from every AMD chip they make. So
IBM owns the 300mm factory, AMD doesn't.

Now - the way I see it is AMD may be trending towards a
fabless chip maker. This would make more sense. But still
they will make less profit from each chip sold though.

Either way this certainly does not bode well for AMD -
the way I see it.

I hope this was a less offensive post-
But I will probably get whacked anyway!

Ronster