Replies to post #7616 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Big On Tarvy]

A 3 or 4 log reduction seems quite possible, IMO.

This is my personal view but it's based on this SK remark in CC:

"In the hemorrhagic fever area, we did compare single vs. multiple dosing. In those studies, it was a lethal viral model, so they either survive or die from the infection. In single dosing, we saw no increase of survival. Only after multiple doses did we see the increased survival and were able to save 50% from a very lethal infection."

If one can go from no survivors to 50% survivors in hemorrhagic pigs by going from single dosing to multiple dosing with a chimeric 70/30 MAb, then it seems like one could go from 0.8 log (the average 12 week result seen in the HCV PH 1a) to at least a 3 log reduction given that this 70/30 chimeric will work much better in humans than it did in pigs.

Note that they saw the dramatic efficacy improvement in repeat vs. single dosing using a MAb that was only 30% effective in pigs. How much bigger would the effect of repeat vs single dosing have been if they had used a MAb that was 70% effective in pigs?

I invite others who are better at math to comment on my projections.

[faxorama]

Jazz, I agree with you on Bavi replacing interferon/albuferon and 2 log reduction should keep that in tact.

However, my RB post was targeting what I think is needed to obtain lofty per share price espoused by some in which case I think that multi-dosing needs to hit 4log10 reduction on highest dose levels in order to make a grab towards VRTX market cap. As BOT just mentioned, this does seem possible given the 1A results and animal studies. I certainly don't mind lowering the expectation bar though in which case Bavi will ultimately need to be tested in combo with VRTX IMO.

I think vx950 had impressive solo 1b results especially at highest dose level (over 4 log for highest dose and 2 log for other dose levels). Of course no 12 week post results on the solo 1b stuff that I know of. In fact the lower dose levels had an uptick in viral load during the second half of the 14 day study... Bavi 1a is indicating just the opposite.