Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Big On Tarvy]

A 3 or 4 log reduction seems quite possible, IMO.

This is my personal view but it's based on this SK remark in CC:

"In the hemorrhagic fever area, we did compare single vs. multiple dosing. In those studies, it was a lethal viral model, so they either survive or die from the infection. In single dosing, we saw no increase of survival. Only after multiple doses did we see the increased survival and were able to save 50% from a very lethal infection."

If one can go from no survivors to 50% survivors in hemorrhagic pigs by going from single dosing to multiple dosing with a chimeric 70/30 MAb, then it seems like one could go from 0.8 log (the average 12 week result seen in the HCV PH 1a) to at least a 3 log reduction given that this 70/30 chimeric will work much better in humans than it did in pigs.

Note that they saw the dramatic efficacy improvement in repeat vs. single dosing using a MAb that was only 30% effective in pigs. How much bigger would the effect of repeat vs single dosing have been if they had used a MAb that was 70% effective in pigs?

I invite others who are better at math to comment on my projections.