Replies to post #196937 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[spartex]

I have a question on your "This three year consolidation between 1800 and 2150 is nothing more then that, consolidation before the multi-year break-out?"

So Dec 20, 2013 the S&P first hit new high of 1818. So three years time would actually then be near the end of this year.

Right now we are only 2 years and 4 months into that 3 years consolidation period (if that is really what is happening).


The five year chart looks more like a topping pattern, yet we're in a complex scenario where is now appears more of the Generals (large cap techs) are starting to sputter out and money is rotating back into defensive and beaten down stocks that have gone through their own bear market past two years. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out, and if there might be a further correction (bear) occurring sometime later this year.

[NetNeutral]

Trend Update, 160429, as of Thursday’s Close (Q’s in Downtrend, SPY triggers SELL Signal)

SPY (posted day 49 yesterday of this Up Trend!)

The SPY has BROKE the Up Trend Line on the Close on Thursday 4/28 (208.41 was the Trend line), and is likely to Signal a Change in Trend today with a Close below 208.67?

2/22, Down-Trend broken and SPY triggered a trend change
4/28, SPY triggers a SELL Signal and Closes below its Trend Line, 208.41, in Dramatic Fashion
4/28, SPY closed at 107.45 (Up 3.7% for the Yr, Up 1.0% for the Month)
4/29, SPY MUST Close above Trend Line, 208.67, today to avoid a Trend Change and join the Q’s!!!


Q’s (posted day 4 of the Down-Trend, Weakness Continues – SELL any bounces)

The Q’s have BROKE the Up Trend on the Close on Friday 4/22 (110.10 was the Trend line), and is already in a SELL-the BOUNCE trend!

2/22, Down-Trend broken and Q’s triggered a trend change
4/22, Up-Trend broken and Q’s triggered a trend change
4/28, Q’s closed at 106.28 (down -3.2 % for the year, down for -2.6% for the month )

OBVIOUSLY we have a situation that Warrants Caution, BUT, today's price action can get our attention if we can manage to CLOSE above 208.67???

More to come during the day as price plays out...