Trend Update, 160428, as of Tuesday’s Close (SPY posted day 48 yesterday of this Up Trend!!!)
Trend info listed below and we have a situation developing that very well could support scenario 2 whereas the last three years was nothing more than consolidation between 1800 and 2150 which suggest we ONLY had a 4 year Bull Market and 3 years of consolidation and now we got UP!!!
The Q’s have BROKE the Up Trend on the Close on Friday 4/22 (110.10 was the Trend line), and is already in a SELL-the BOUNCE trend!!
The Q’s Down January trend change triggered on 2/22 and completed day 43 as of Thursday’s close, BUT, the CLOSE-ing price of 108.98 on Friday BROKE the Trend and we expect 4-8 trading days of corrective action before we should expect any bounce of meaning??
The Q’s trend line number moved to 109.80 as of Wednesday’s CLOSE with the FIRST Sell signal coming on 4/11 as the Q’s CLOSE at 108.60 which was below the trend line of 108.91. That said, the discount wave should have completed Wednesday 4/27 and we expect prices to continue higher into Friday??
The SPY is clinging to its uptrend with a CLOSE at 209.35 on Wednesday and a Trend line number is now 208.41. We thought the SPY would follow the Q’s lead and a Trend violation would occur but it’s beginning to look more like New ALL Time Highs instead.
Obviously support is NOW the Trend line on a CLOSE-ing basis, 208.41 and price action between Monday’s low, 207.54, and the 208.65 level should be bought??
Couple things to consider as we try to extrapolate what this all means???
1) A trend lasting this long is NOT usuallly associated with a bearish or TOP-ing pattern. In other words, things are out of sync in many regards when one C’s a trend of 42 days but all other indicators are signaling bad things to come in regard to price??
2) It appears da-Boyz are intent to post another tall Green Monthly candle similar to March? March was a 100 point candle and if one takes the Opening price of 203.09 and adds 10.00 (100 points), one can easily expect 213.09 as a reasonable target before this Non-Compulsive Sneaky Manipulative Wave up to takes a breather? If we then get a 50% retrace one can extrapolate a 203 target on a intraday basis but with 203.87 being the Closing price on 12/31/2015 one must consider closing below said level as signaling more down??
In Summary, One has to consider 1 of 2 scenarios when trying to discern this disconnect??
1) Serious manipulation in an attempt to exit stage right by the rulers of the Markets?
2) This three year consolidation between 1800 and 2150 is nothing more then that, consolidation before the multi-year break-out?
I can’t imagine ANYONE has considered scenario two in which the past three years has been THE correction(consolidation) and once complete we move up to play above 2150 for many years?? This would suggest that the BULL RUN ended three years ago (suggesting the BULL Market lasted only 4 years which is well within the mean),and we’re in the process of COMPLETE-ing THE correction!!??
Not even I can wrap me tiny brain around dat possible out-come…
