Replies to post #197082 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[NetNeutral]

The Cascading Discount Wave, TAKE 2, – Day 2 …

It pains us to have to post dis-Cascading Discount Wave scenario, BUT, price is indicating a failure of meaning as the SPY can NOT CLOSE above 210.00 and HOLD it, hence, we must be heading down to test support levels of meaning??

Wednesday High 209.81, Thursday’s Low 206.97, wkly range 2.84 or 1.4%

Play-r’s, we got problems for today’s price action and its that a wkly PM of 1.4% or range of 2.84, well, this is UN-Heard of and suggest BAD things for today!!??

Let us calculate potential outcomes using a wkly trading range of 3.50 and 4.00 or 1.7% and 1.9%?

209.81 – 3.50 = 206.31
209.81 – 4.00 = 205.81 (bingo, GAP Fill, or NOT)

The HUGE drop into the last hour of trading has us on the Edge of our seat in anticipation of a violation of yesterday’s LOW (206.97), OR, a move up to breach 209.81 and a posting of a Green April Candle??

Support
208.65, violated 4/22
207.78, violated 4/25 (this line is a guide to the next three wks action, PLEASE do NOT CLOSE below dis-puppy TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
206.84
206.50
205.92
203.97

[Scripo]

Thx for your contribution here your post are very welcomed.

[NetNeutral]

Trend Update, 160430, as of Friday’s Close (Q’s and SPY in Downtrend, SPY triggers SELL Signal on Thursday and confirmed on Friday)

SPY (posted day 49 Thursday of this Up Trend, BUT, the Up-Trend has completed, for NOW!)

The SPY confirmed an Up Trend Change on the Close of Friday 4/29 (208.67 was the Trend line), this is after triggering a Sell Signal on Thursday close!

2/22, Down-Trend broken and SPY triggered a trend change

4/28, SPY triggers a SELL Signal and Closes below its Trend Line, 208.41, in Dramatic Fashion

4/28, SPY closed at 107.45 (Up 3.7% for the Yr, Up 1.0% for the Month)

4/29, SPY MUST Close above Trend Line, 208.67, today to avoid a Trend Change and join the Q’s!!!

4/29, SPY Trend Change confirmed, Trend line moved to 208.58 on Friday’s close 5/1, We expect a continuation of said Down Trend and the supports are listed below

Support
208.65, violated 4/22

207.78, violated 4/25, CLOSED below 4/28 and 4/29, Not Good Bulls, (this line is a guide to the next three wks action, ANY failure to climb back above this line Mon/Tues spells Doom and Gloom for the remainder of the week??

206.84, violated 4/29, serious resistance on a CLOSE-ing basis

206.52, violated 4/29, this S/R line is the most important of them ALL for the Bulls, why u ask, because it represents the CLOSE-ing price on the third Friday of Dec 2014, nearly 18 months ago, WowZa!!!

205.92, violated 4/29, GAP filled, BUT, either we GAP and run Monday or all Hope is lost in the ST.

203.97, Still Standing as support, this is the YTD Close on 12/31/2015

200.02, Still Standing as Support, this S/R line is the most important of them ALL for the Bears, why u ask, because it represents the CLOSE-ing price on the Third Friday of Dec 2015 and is the ZERO line in regards to gains or losses for the Year, “God” help us ALL if it fails ANYTIME for the remainder of the Year!!!!!!



Q’s (posted day 5 of the Down-Trend, Weakness Continues – SELL any bounces)

The Q’s have BROKE the Up Trend on the Close on Friday 4/22 (110.10 was the Trend line), and is already in a SELL-the BOUNCE trend!

2/22, Down-Trend broken and Q’s triggered a trend change
4/22, Up-Trend broken and Q’s triggered a trend change
4/28, Q’s closed at 106.28 (down -3.2 % for the year, down for -2.6% for the month )
4/29, Q’s closed at 105.72 (well below their YTD ZERO line, 109.83)

[NetNeutral]

What we are watching, and WHY???

Play-r’s, we take r trend change signal VERY seriously and will act accordingly this morning in regard to us being 100% Long into the close on Friday. In other words, we will be buying puts with reckless abandon on ANY attempt to breach the 206.95/207.00 level??

That said, while our signals are extremely reliable (Q’s signal came on 4/22 and we all know what happened next)et us excit, we also have an advantage over ALL TA, Charts, Paper, well, you name it, in regard to confirmation of said signal??

Unlike other systems that need dis, dat, or whatever to cross over, pass under, etc…, we KNOW our signal is good to go based on price!!!

In addition, there is ONLY ONE way the SPY can negate said signal, it MUST breach and CLOSE above 207.78, PERIOD!!!

In summary, GAP’s up, intraday Up, and kissing and Making Up do NOT get us as excited as when we was Young and Foolish! BUT, STAYING UP (especially above 207.78), is what gets us excited about the possibilities and ST Future!!

Let us watch dat 207.78 level and IF and ONLY IF price can CLOSE above said level will we get excited about our calls that all start going green above 208.75???

Good trades ALL…