You've certainly done a great job of piecing things together. The only "however..." I'd add is this:
What happens when the BOD of CVRR announces what we of this board fully expect---no distribution coming as a result of the current quarter? I predict we'll see a yo-yo sling-shotting effect and end-of-day trading might just be the time to pounce.
Folks usually express disappointment by showing anger and masking their helplessness. This drives unit prices down.
At this juncture I have no reason to think that I'm going to be pleased by CVRR, whether we're discussing future distributions or future capital appreciation. While I'd be the first to acknowledge that studying the past doesn't necessarily reveal anything in the future, clues of an historical nature will be regarded as a bit of a launch point when mounting an argument this way or that.
I'm not considering buying CVRR at this point in time. I'll be looking carefully at $10.50 and below.
Meanwhile, NGL, SDLP and CEQP are a few of my favored picks while not refiners, themselves. And I continue to add to ALDW which I believe will be a hands-down prize by mid-Summer.
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