Replies to post #28954 on Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)

[Dutch1]

Absolutely, there are too many market forces in play too trade just based on following a chart. Especially when you want to buy and sell on a daily base, trying to beat the chart.

But This chart is showing almost two years of PEIX, oil, ethanol and corn. And I think it is possible to notice some connections. The most obvious imo is the connection between the oil price and PEIX. PEIX seems to follow the line of oil most of the times. Yes, the charts aren't completely syncronised timewise it may be a few days to weeks off, but you can see peix follows the pops and drops in oil.

In the beginning of the chart PEIX seems to follow ethanol a bit more, but later on PEIX seems almost completely detached from the ethanol movement if you look at the larger picture.

I did put the start and end quote of peix an oil in line to see the connection better and it really surprised me how much they look alike.

[Dutch1]

The new charts comparing Oil, Ethanol, Corn and PEIX.
I know a chart doesn't say everything.
But to see how much the share price of PEIX is reacting to the oil, corn and ethanol movements I did compare the charts with each other.

What I did was trying to put the charts on top of each other, just to see what happens if for instance Corn moves up, does PEIX move down? Because that might lead to lower margins.
What happens if Ethanol moves up. Ethanol is of course also connected to the corn price, but as a first reaction I think we could expect PEIX to move up also.
And Finally how much does PEIX follow Oil.

To see the connection better between Corn and PEIX, I did flip the corn chart over, so that corn moving down, is showing in the chart as moving up. This way it is easear to spot if PEIX makes the same movement.

I really tried to make the connections visible as much as possible by adjusting the lines on top of each other.
The lines go from June 16, 2014 to April 11, 2016.
The dates are fully synchronised throughout the whole chart.

To me it is clear that PEIX reacts most to Oil at the moment. Also it is clear to me that PEIX used to react more to the corn and the ethanol price, but it seems like that connection is almost lost.

But judge for yourself.

PEIX VS. CORN:


PEIX VS. ETHANOL:


PEIX VS OIL: