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Dutch1

04/18/16 7:43 AM

#28958 RE: Dutch1 #28957

So for today, looking at the oil chart now...PEIX will move down.
If oil makes a move back above $40 ($40,50), PEIX will move toward green again. It's my guess based on what I did find...now let's see how that works out....

Dutch1

04/18/16 8:23 AM

#28959 RE: Dutch1 #28957

Also looked back at the board posts to see what seemed to cause the drop in sept 2014. Lower ethanol prices seemed to be causing it. Looking at these charts now, you can see that until 2015 PEIX was following the ethanol prices a lot.

By the way.... to make things complete I also made a chart to see the spread between corn and ethanol. They are following each other pretty much, so unless (like recently) the spread is pretty large, a rise by one doesn't mean too much for the margins if the other follows.

That said, you might want to ignore the chart in which I flipped corn upside down, since this might not be a way to compare it to PEIX if at the same time the ethanol price drops ;-)

The red line is ethanol, the blue line is corn.
So the higher the red line is compared to the blue line, the higher the margin. (if the blue line is above the red line, that doesn't indicate a negative spread, just that corn dropped less compared to the start then ethanol)