Looking back over the past year or so of your posts makes for some interesting reading. Feb. 3rd of 2015 had oil about twice today's price and nobody's projections about anything oil-related would make for lasting sense. Nevertheless, I like the way you apply logic in a time zone when there's no meaningful premise available.
I know I'd seen the possibility of CVRR dropping back to something approaching $14 and it is obviously there right now. But given the rapidity with which it has dropped, I think $12-$13 isn't exactly far fetched. A terrible payout plus guidance could do it---perhaps 35 cents for the next quarter about to be announced (Q4 of 2015).
The distribution could actually drop more than that as you aptly point out in stating 50 cents is a possibility although the negative environment says everything.
So I think we should all buy CVRR and donate a portion of our non-existent distributions to Mr. Icahn just to remain in the spirit of things.
Kidding aside, there will be a "right" time to reload with CVRR units but as I've been saying for more than three months now, I think the time will not be before March---after guidance has been delivered.
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