Replies to post #469 on CVR REFINING (CVI)

[jugs]

I think you know me as one to shoot from the hip. That said, I think you're making a huge mistake.

There is no way CVRR deserves to be pricing above $19. I base this not on the market's failure to properly recognize CVRR's asset base but on items you, yourself point out.

In brief, the crack spread cannot possibly support a nice distribution coming up. In fact, the next several quarters will come under harsh attack. The end result will be people running away in droves, determined to not be duped and disappointed ever again.

You know better, Pete. I know I'm not saying anything you don't see without help from me. I question the wisdom of holding units presently controlled by yourself, presumably with gains included. That's a risk heavily favoring the likelihood of a pending loss.

You know units will drop below $17 on news of a lousy payout---maybe 30 cents? So you may be trading your $19 units of today in for a loss from here of $2---all for what may well be a payout diminished by 2/3? Where's the sense to that? Obviously you've got dry powder. Your gains match up dollar for dollar and could be derisked by acting now instead of putting yourself on the auction block.

I'd be selling at the best I could above $19 if I had a position with a locked-in cap app. gain. I'd be a buyer when my prognostications proved valid but not until then. A 30 cent payout plus negative guidance for the next Q or two or three will decimate this stock. What is the point behind your holding a stock knowing damned well that headwinds could topple this thing quick as a wink? You can always repurchase. You can always admit to a mistake. You can always undo wrongs and correct things later---there's no permanent closing of that window of opportunity.

But you have an asset dangling in front of you right now. And you know it can't remain indefinitely.

I hope you do something other than merely hold. If you decide I'm full of it, that's fine---but I've got to do what I can when I see a friend possibly making a mistake easily remedied.

[pete807]

Yes I myself listed the reasons logically that it has to fall, and I was writing that before checking on my cap gain or K1 final cost basis. I should take a look to offset some other losses and increase the dry powder even more. What was I thinking... the way this one has held up since the payout was secured is what had me overconfident and it is bound in my own words to fall well below todays close. So tomorrow I will be a vigilant trader and maybe I will sell the high cost second half at least and their will be tax loss credit instead of the opposite. I was thinking of the wash trade rule but it turns out that too has expired since it was 50 days ago on that 500 units. Maybe all of it can go as I have collected a couple thousand in payouts also. Very little cap gains. First rule is that we can always reload at what appears to be post turnaround lows. Thanks... pete