I'm not sorry you're disappointed, I have to tell you. I'm not interested in managing anyone's emotions.
That isn't really what happened. I've said this multiple times, but okay, one more: I was bullish with what information I had. As time went on and no ORR data were revealed on Direct I began to suspect the therapy. When I came to realize they were long past the time where they could divulge data and not have to deal with repercussions from MDA, but were not, and were only showing a handful of case studies, none of which had even a partial response, well, THAT'S what reshaped my opinion.
I said that's it, no ORR, and everyone said oh just wait it's like fine wine and needs to mature. It's like aged beer.. But look: I was right, there is none.
I'm a flexible investor. If new information comes to light or the obvious concealment of info from management, my opinion is at the ready to change.
No ORR for Direct changed my thesis on Direct, which affected my overall NWBO thesis. I felt (and still do) that the valuation of around $600mm for NWBO was high, and that for those who had a lower cost basis it would be wise to hedge with puts (a very common strategy). I was incessantly attacked for it and demonized which I found mostly amusing.
Then a German protocol was discovered by AVII at ivil, and he and jmlogan and a couple others extrapolated it. I did my own research on it and came away with an even more bearish conclusion than them. That really did it for me. Now I see the risk here as much, much higher than I did before.
Why am I posting? I don't know, because I want to. I find data and debate interesting. Why do I need some motive or mission?
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