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jeff_green

04/29/15 1:36 PM

#75165 RE: StocksAnonymous #75164

40% revenue slide is very concerning. Company is no longer posting revenue growth YOY. The opposite is occurring. Consumers are rejecting the products.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) was 77% of total revenue in Q4 2014 is even a larger factor for the MSLP demise.

Yes read that percentage again. JUST the COGS eats 77% of the total revenue. NO MARGINS!

So funny that no longs address this FACT! 77%

COGS is going up (bad) and revenue is going down (bad).

$19m in SGA expense in Q4 left a $16m loss for the quarter.

No cash and 100% of assets hocked for defaulted loan covenants within weeks of signing papers leave MSLP in dire straights now. No 2016 forecast necessary.

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TheExpertHimself

04/29/15 1:57 PM

#75167 RE: StocksAnonymous #75164

Brad's as well as your expectations seem to be very optimistic.

My expectation is that the company will sell for $170 to $195 million this year, with only q3 and q4 surpassing last year's revenue numbers.

The stock price will remain undervalued regardless....as there is no way it cannot break even and post minor profits with sales above $170 million per year, regardless of endorsements.

Revenues are under pressure because of protein spiking chatter, the complete lack of exciting and engaging communication and because BB.com is guiding traffic away from Musclepharm products towards Glanbia, Cellucor and new brands....hurting the growth in the short term.

The company has done a lot of right things, but lately it has gotten a little introvert and defensive in it's communication, which has made it drop a little bit in popularity among some customers and partners.

Right now, a realistic price target is $9.5....if Brad really delivered what was promised, hell the stock price would be $20....

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TheExpertHimself

04/29/15 8:49 PM

#75204 RE: StocksAnonymous #75164

Musclepharm doesn't need to grow much this year, it grew plenty last year.

If it does, it must be balanced growth between mass and specialty retailing for powders and for protein bars.

Protein bars have not entered mass retail yet and when they do....they could probably add some $20-40 million in additional sales over 12 months (considering the success of Quest and Clif bar).....
Most likely, Musclepharm will look at how much exposure it gets from the Cavaliers sponsorship and then let that determine when to launch the Combat Crunch at mass retail.

Launching a snack bar during the Summer is probably not seen that often....but if the Cavs exposure is good, then Musclepharm has to pull the trigger. As mentioned by Jeff, the exposure at UFC will go away when Reebok's Uniform policy becomes effective in July....so, that will be something that Musclepharm will have to consider.

Down the road, Musclepharm should work on adding protein drinks, amino acid drinks, energy drinks and amino acid powders to mass retail assortment....and selectively add protein powders as well, without offending existing specialty retailers.

Musclepharm should seek to always make a big deal out of next generations products at specialty retailers, Apple style...like: "we added this, we changed that....and this has never been done before"

Jim Stoppani has done all of that, made something not done before, using different blends....

The new Bodybuilding.com brand Grit is trying to do the same: making the audience believe it is getting something special.