Replies to post #112659 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[UncleverName]

[edit]awk, I trust you've done the math. My understanding from the call is that SKS has specific model numbers with projected shipments at this point in time that accoutn for 14% of shipments for the next THREE years -- that sounds phenomenal to me. This is without new models or additional OEM contracts or Seagate or...

What am I missing?

[internet]

AWK...Thanks for the extra DD!!

Sincerely,

Jas

[cpa]

awk and all,

Here is the problem.

Wave put out an official press release with (finally) some numbers attached. However, those numbers have more holes in them than I care to count. SKS says positive things on the call about those numbers, but, adds that adoption rates could be as low as 1% or as high as 40%. So, what you have is no guideance (not necessarily SKS's fault).

So, what you are left hanging your hat on is the 4th qtr. actual black and white numbers. You have to ask yourself, 'why did revenues only go up $13,000?'. I'll tell you why....because adoption is slow, sloth slow.

50 million chips in three years? Okay, I'll buy that. However, the numbers will have that hockey stick curve you guys like to refer to, low for the next year and ramping up in year three.

Where does this leave Wave? I'll tell you! Going to the well quarter after quarter with the stock price diminishing with each dip into the money pool. Also, even if the delisting doesn't occur in April, I'm sure it will 180 days later.

In conclusion, until the adoption ACTUALLY happens, there is NO COMPELLING REASON TO OWN THIS STOCK at this price, IMHO. After hours trading supports this theory. The stock will trade in the low to mid 50 cents today and I think you will see the 40's by mid next week.

The death spiral has begun.

CPA

[waverider]

awk, I missed the CC. Thanks for the follow up and clarification.

[go-kitesurf]

Andy, thank you for this update. One of the better updates from the last 24 hours. I have to apologize to the board that I did not read the PR release or listen to the call. I now see your cut-and-paste from the PR and that makes sense to me.

Something Else
SKS projected revenues from minimum "orders in hand" over three years. Folks, this is HUGE. He is telling investors that Wave has a THREE YEAR BUNDLING DEAL WITH DELL and GATEWAY. This is incredible news to me in that it eases concerns about MSFT subsumation, etc. Dell is obviously not confident in MSFT's value added products for at least 3 years. Hopefully 3 years from now Wave will have multiple services enabled (signonline, TVTonic, etc).

Additonally, SignonLine and Fiserv is on line, operational, and expanding as a "per transaction" revenue channel. This is great news. Okay, so naysayers will argue the housing market is collapsing soon and its already slowed quite a bit. So what? Prices may be flat, or housing prices may fall some, but people and banks will still be exchanging property ownership and last I checked, Fiserv was a big partner to have in this space.

Looking at Wave, their market prospectus going forward is currently based on a history of $200k in 2004 and over a million in 2005. That's a 5-fold increase in revenues very very early in the game.

This million dollar plateau was achieved with developments with Intel, Dell, etc.

New developments with partners and new partners should increase the plateau to a significantly larger number. Intel has increased their TPM-enabled boards and ship 10m per year. Dell is now bundling with 10-15M units shipped in 2006. Gateway is bundling and ships 4m PCs per year. We have additional fuel in government, resellerships in Japan, etc.

2004- $200,000+
2005- $1,000,000+
2006- $7-10M (minimum based on SKS #s)

If they build the pipeline with a MSI, Asus, ACER, Toshiba, Government, etc, there could be a nice upside to this year and the stock should be a buy at this point if the analysts get it. But, they may likely wait to see the Q2 results in August to play it safe. But it is nice to see some new people watching and spending their valuable time on a Wave CC where this was a waste of their time in the past.

Small buys of Wave with new PRs over the next 6 months in anticipation of a decent Q2 earnings call could provide some great pressure to the upside.