Replies to post #25689 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[ziploc_1]

Loop:re 20%discount
If IDCC gives a 20% discount to NOK even though NOK declines to pay promptly, this means that the actual royalty rate was 20% less than what IDCC declared it was. e.g. if they say that the rate is .5% and then they let NOK pay .4% in 2004, their real rate becomes .4% . This could lead ERICY to demand a rebate and any licensees with an MFL clause in their agreement to assume that the real rate is .4% from which they could deduct another 20% for prompt payment. IMO IDCC does not have the luxury to give NOK a 20% discount unless they pay promptly.

[0nceinalifetime]

Loop, thanks for explaining yourself more thoroughly. Getting Nokia on board is the turning of the corner? I thought Nokia was already on board, we just didn't know what the rate was. Now they are on board, the rate is supposedly defined but we still don't know what it is. Management has made some royalty estimates but they use vague terms like "could be". On top of that, Nokia hasn't even agreed to IDCC's interpretation of whatever they think the rate is.

I don't think anyone here would be very surprised to learn the rates are not as high as expected. I see two likely scenarios:

1) Nokia agrees to IDCC's interpretation of the rate and this "good news" is used to unload many of the shares purchased by fund managers over the last 2-3 weeks without going in the hole. In this scenario the little guy becomes the bag holder when it is later discovered the rate is not nearly as high as hoped.

2) The obvious fear of most people, Arbitration.

I have discounted the 3rd possibility which is a timely resolution at the dream rates most here are hoping for because IDCC has no history of this kind of surprise. Why should everything change now? I still don't see this mythical "corner" that IDCC has supposedly turned.

I'm really not trying to be negative but I have to call it how I see it.

Once

[0nceinalifetime]

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, all this ignores the fact that 3G agreements haven't been resolved yet either. Nobody knows how that will play out but I do know that manufacturers don't like to open their wallets unless they absolutely have no other choice.

IDCC has yet to demonstrate that they have this kind of 3G IPR even though millions of dollars of 3G equipment is being sold as we wait around. Q signed 3G licenses with the majors years ago.

Once