Hey stacc, my pleasure. And agreed, I just hope people don't start getting sick of seeing Pyrrhonian yet ONCE AGAIN.. lol. But when this board starts getting 3x the daily volume I'll blend in a bit better.
1. I just did last night. Let's see what happens.
2. I mostly figured label extension of L to treat 2% of stage I, 10% of stage II, 50% of stage III, and 40% of stage IV cancers. Now, theoretically it could be used to treat 100% of all operable cancers (and if you assume Direct is effective, potentially 100% of inoperable as well--once Direct shrinks those tumors enough to be operated on), but in practice I don't think that will be the case. Most people found to be in st I survive their cancer. It was caught early (very key), immediately resected, the patient treated with a less aggressive chemotherapy and then radiation (as you know). This is so well established and proven effective that even a blockbuster novelty like DCVax may be scoffed at as an alternative. The old adage, 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it,' applies here and certainly where lives are at stake and also the health of our economy (unless L can be shown to effectively replace chemo--something that would take many years and many thousands of documented patient files, imo--it will remain an adjunct, driving up insurance costs). Then you can see how I arrived at my st II and III assumptions as well. Many st IVs are also inoperable, hence the decline (also remember that most cancer patients are st I and II--they're not four equal parts).
This was my best guess based on my understanding of the disease. I'm open to altering that of course.
So my 20% pen is a bit more involved than at first look. I think it's also best to be conservative here. Expectation is the root of all sorrow after all, and no one knows this better than the investor, lol. If the actual penetration (assuming the vacc is approved across the board) is closer to 50%, or even over 60%, well then, what a nice surprise! However if I or especially if the Company says 80% and people expect it, and then once numbers start rolling in and they have to "lower expectations" it may become oversold. Jmo
3. You may be right in time. But until sales figures really start coming in and build up over 3-5 years (from approval) we are confined to speculating. Public perception of the value in the DCVax platform will land, in my estimation, about where I mentioned. I based this on an analysis of several other companies, and how the share price was affected by public perception relative to their approval and marketing progress. Of course, this is something different, but once again, conservative is, in my view, the best approach. Also, sales x2 is a bit more standard (for a share price valuation that I chose not to include, as it would be too far down the road).
Also of note is $120B valuation would equal a pps of $1,050 fully diluted. Still not too shabby ;)
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