Saturday, April 12, 2014 4:28:42 AM
A couple of points/questions:
1) Why don't you try to have it published on Seeking Alpha for instance? This could reach many more people and be information tool not only for investors but also for patients
2) I find overall market estimates somehow low for the DCVax L label extension to all solid operable tumor cancers. First because if DCvax L is proven effective not sure why it should be marketed only for stage four cancers if it is a way to prevent or delay tumor re-occurrence than why not using it also for lower stages. Moreover why only a 20% market penetration if it is much more effective than SOC.
3) I also find price targets somehow inconsistent with revenue projections. Even if we allow for your assumed market penetration and market size (in fact I believe the market size could be much bigger than what you have assumed, whilst market penetration will depend also on competing new drugs/vaccines) you get, in the best case scenario, to around $60B in annual sales. That would mean $300B in market cap using avg pharma multiples, which even allowing for some further dilution (100M total common shares)it would still mean $3,000 PPS
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