NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[gpb]

You may have a point there, but if I concede on the screening and not on the randomization, then it doesn't bode well. I'm not willing to concede on the randomization (by the way, pretty sure this is why it's 312 patients instead of 300), but you aren't the first person I've seen make that assertion, so we'll just have to disagree on this one until data is published. It would be nice to be wrong about that, because it would help the dcvax early-halt case considerably, I just can't let myself believe it.

As for the impact that screen has on the primary cohorts, if around one in four patients presents immediate signs of early progression, and 32-54% of those turn out to have pseudo-progression (which resolves on follow-up), then even if there's a prognostic difference of liberally-speaking 4.5 months in the tPD counterpart, I see this stratification helping the median PFS of the controls by less than 1 full month (.57[tPD]*.26[ePD]*4.5[mos.]=0.67). That does seem a bit small but even if I double it for the sake of argument, we're still looking at 9.4 months or so, 10.5 when that's combined with my optimistic number given earlier for aggressive resection, still not 12.

Both the investigator's own results and past studies on psPD are given here: Sanghera '10

Good luck with your naked snowball fight, bring us back a trophy.