Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

I would add to that the biggest fear is profitability and Sales.

WS was heavy into a BO or a partnership and severely unhappy with GIA strategy. So now it's a question of sales. Initial consensus earnings for 2013 were 90 million, it's now half that and with the coupons even with the current scripts they are unlikely to reach those estimates so estimates will be coming down for 2013 after the next Q.

Then the question turns to 2014. What sales can thy expect? Since WS thought they'd get 90 million and they got 30 million in 2013 means WS has low expectations for ramp up of Anchor sales. They probably need 25K weekly scripts to talk about break even and they are at 6K. Average 2014 estimates are 210 million sales and 69 cents a share loss.

So at what point do they have a profit and how much, if WS is correct 2015 equals 365 million sales and about 30-40 cents earnings for the year, at a P/E of 20 for growth prospects you get $6-8.

So it's a simple case of prove you can sell 1 billion a year of the drug quicker than WS estimates. Start showing sales above estimates. If they start doing that institutions will get in.

If they get Anchor AND partner WS will believe they will get there faster and would drive the price up at least double from here...GIA for Anchor I think WS will wait and see until mid-2014 and see if company comes through on sales. Thus $6-8 will hold for awhile.

They execute sales and price will rise, how fast they execute sales determines how fast it will rise. Simple as that. Right now WS has no reason to believe they will be profitable until 2015 so no reason to be buying the stock as an institutional investor.

This is why I continue to sell OTM Puts and Calls and hold my core position. Not much downside from here and protected to upside with core position.