This is one gloomy board...
A good general rule in the stock market is the greater the euphoria the greater the chance the stock is overpriced (hello Tesla). Gloomy stocks seldom crash. On this board we have some "silver tongued devils" of dubious credentials warning us of dire possibilities "Hell REDUCE-IT could bog down and not finish till the next century"..The fact some GP (excuse me "PCP") has not heard about V does not indicate AMRN's marketing is a total failure. There are PCP's that don't know the heart is in the rib cage.
Savy market players always try to factor the fundamentals into the PPS particularly when there is a lot of emotion being shown..With AMRN there is a clear disconnect between objectivity and the share price..How can I tell...Well the PPS went up to $19 after the ANCHOR SPA results...That was before AMRN had a single new patent, had no NDA, no suppliers, one third the money, no revenues on and on...The $19 PPS was a combination of euphoria and a conviction on the part of retailers and funds alike that AMRN would be sold..A conviction based on little more than some off handed remarks made by the CEO in 2010.."Words are wind".
The ultimate value of V is going be determined by how many people in the USA..and other locations end up taking the drug...The business is similar to the beverage industry...How bottles, pills are they going to sell on a daily-monthly-yearly basis..The only difference is in AMRN's case its not the taste, but the clinical benefits..That is why knowing the science is so important..
Unlike the beverage industry, AMRN's marketing involves educating its customers..In the pre internet period this would be the MDs. The internet has made patients more pro-active. The FDA constraints on AMRN have prevented the company from taking the drug directly to the patients (read diabetic groups) for the present time..This will change after Dec..The V story is a very powerful one. One that can be told to the public..Not everyone wants to live a longer healthier life, but there are enough in the population to make V a very profitable drug..
As for the rest of the fundamentals..AMRN is doing very nicely. No one likes a dilution, but the company now has over 300mil to market the ANCHOR indication...We have a ton of patents..Addequate suppliers for near future, an NDA and a 90% chance of an sNDA..No safety issues
What's there to be gloomy about..Certainly not a couple of bogus fish oil papers. The fact the company is GIA, with or without a marketing partner is not the end of the world despite what you hear..BPs are "mammoths" from the ice age in the new electronic age. They probably never had much to offer in the first place..Most biotechs were forced to sell the drugs off, simply because the cost of the FDA process was too great to bare..I have good friends at GENZ. They were bought out not to long ago..What are the changes?..Pretty much nothing..J&J took over Maghann, an implant company...they did change MaGhann...so much so I now no longer do business with them...
Stick with AMRN..
":>) JL
