Biopharm,
"The right perspective is worth 80 IQ points"---Kaye (senior think tank consultant for Apple)
I've seen you state in a number of blogs that SOC in NSCLC is worth at least $4 Billion. I believe that is a figure you derive from 4.3 Billion in current global sales in the disease and then you divide by cap and come to some imputed share value. Since you are an avid bull in PPHM, I would like to see you get a better handle on this subject to enhance "credibility". Otherwise, you fall into a similar trap to that of CP , in spite of corporate statements, with the constant repetition that PPHM was going to get at least 100mm from the ABL contract. You say the same thing so often you come to believe it true. (In the case of the ABL contract 40mm is a good number so we are just talking about credibility--which is important for avid bulls.)
"Were" PPHMs' 2nd line NSCLC to "become" SOC at some date in the future, it would probably be worth a larger number than $4B as there may be some time passage and the disease "market size" is growing, and the drug could be used "off label" for "much larger" numbers, and the drug might be effective SOC for a generation of annual sales.
If you are going for a "current value" (which I think you are), the number is much lower. You need the "current time discounted value adjusted for risk". And there are lots of risks: quality of partnering, Phase III result risk, advancing competition, marketing risk. Until recently, there was risk that the FDA might not let PPHM advance to Phase III. Fortunately, we can cross that one off the list. At "best" I might value current worth at 1-1.5 B. Either way your numbers are off in my opinion.
Comments are made in a positive sense since I agree with much of what you write and same for CP. It's getting late in the game and IMO the board needs to tighten up as we prepare for forward progress.
Best Regards,
RRdog
