RRdog, you are forcing me to dig deep into getting a more accurate SOC value for NSCLC which is fine because its a learning experience for me and I don't mind the criticism at all, especially if I am wrong.
First... where I am starting is NSCLC is the #1 highest rate of death. Off the top of my head... maybe about 225,000 per year in the U.S. ? 85% of that # is NSCLC = 191k (but some websites said 185,000 were NSCLC. ( I am only using 120,000 in my estimation below)
Treatment costs... $50,000 - 100,000+ .... and If its going to be Bavi, it will exceed whatever that current cost was. I remember in my old calculation I "conservatively" used $50,000 as cost...
I remember using 120,000 patients ( per year X $50,000 for the treatment... comes to $6 Billion
I then even brought that down ... to $4 Billion / 140M shares = $30pps
There are not too many sites that give straight out SOC care costs/estimates... so going by amount of patients... x costs... rough estimating at its finest, which is why I "conservatively" estimated downward each time to conclude with that $4 Billion SOC cost
I'll retry though and I brought this up on the biotech value board and one of the more respected posters agreed with my "conservative" $4 Billion SOC cost but said I did not reach that figure the way its supposed to be worked out but the final $4 Billion was a good figure for NSCLC
I'm willing to listen.. to your approach though? as I will freely admit if I am wrong.
GLTA!
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